Research & News
Daily Comment (June 8, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was another quiet overnight session. As we note above, equity markets are mixed while U.S. equities continue to slowly trend higher. Commodity prices are continuing to show impressive strength. Several factors are lifting prices. The weak employment data has put downward pressure on the dollar… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 7, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Chair Yellen’s speech yesterday was about as we expected; she didn’t say too much and did work hard to give her and the FOMC ample space to raise or not raise rates. She did paint a view of the economy that was reasonably upbeat but also… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Tragedy of Venezuela (June 6, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady The decline in oil prices has been a major problem for oil-exporting nations. In general, the degree of disruption is mostly based on how well the country was run before oil prices plunged. Venezuela has arguably been the worst run of the major oil producers. The late President Hugo Chavez built an… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 6, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The big news for today is Chair Yellen’s speech at 12:30 EDT today in Philadelphia. This talk has been widely anticipated but will get even more attention following the much weaker than expected employment report for May, which was released last Friday. Jon Hilsenrath of the… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 3, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The employment data came in with a very negative surprise (see charts below for details). Here are some of the highlights. Non-farm payrolls rose by a mere 38k compared to estimates calling for a 160k rise. The previous month’s numbers were also revised down by 59k;… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 3, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee The prolonged weakness seen in capital spending is a concern for the economy and equity markets. This chart shows the yearly change in the three-month smoothed non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft. The Census Bureau changed how it calculates this series in 1992; we have overlapped the yearly change in the earlier… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 2, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] At the time of this writing, ECB President Mario Draghi is holding his press conference. The ECB did give the markets a modest surprise by announcing it will begin buying corporate bonds almost immediately. Policy will remain easy. The EUR has weakened during his comments. At… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 1, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Domestic and European equities are trading lower, following gains in May. While investors are increasingly looking for the Fed to hike rates this summer, domestic equities traded higher over the past month even with a rate hike more likely. Today’s market weakness is likely driven… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 31, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Chinese equities rose sharply overnight as MSCI takes another look at adding this country’s equities to its emerging market indices. In one sense, the exclusion of China’s equities in these key equity indices is hard to justify. After all, China is an important country; its GDP… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 27, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As noted below, Chair Yellen speaks later this morning. This talk has been long awaited; however, we don’t expect too much. In our opinion, Yellen remains dovish and would likely prefer not to move rates this year. However, she does need to maintain control of the… Read More »