Research & News
Daily Comment (November 28, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The big news item over the weekend was the passing of Fidel Castro, the revolutionary leader of Cuba. The immediate impact of his death on markets will be rather small; as Fidel’s health weakened over the past decade he turned over the day-to-day running… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 25, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Uncertainty continues to plague the European Union as a result of growing populist movements. Today, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to allow refugees to enter Europe after the European Parliament voted to stop talks regarding Turkey’s admission into the EU. Turkey has received… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 23, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] U.S. stock futures moved mostly sideways after reaching a record high over the past two days. There was little additive news to the macro and political news that have carried the U.S. reflation trade recently. President-elect Trump gave an interview to the NYT yesterday… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 22, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Equities continue to move higher in the post-election environment. This rise is coming in the face of virtual certainty that the FOMC will raise rates next month. We may be starting to see a shift in market sentiment away from the focus on monetary… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Losing the Philippines: Part 1 (November 21, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady (There will be no report published over the Thanksgiving holiday. Part 2 of this report will be issued on December 5.) In May, Rodrigo Duterte was elected president of the Philippines, winning 39% of the vote. He is the first resident of the island of Mindanao to hold the office, making him a… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 21, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The weekend’s news flow seemed to be all about the president-elect. Perhaps the most interesting was an interview in the Hollywood Reporter[1] with Steve Bannon, the incoming president’s chief strategist. Bannon outlined his policies and it dovetails with our read on him and the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 18, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Trumponomics looks as if it will be a combination of fiscal stimulus, trade restrictions and deregulation. It looks very likely that environmental regulations will be reversed and there have been promises of financial deregulation as well. The first two will likely reflate the economy. Proposed deregulation may help hold down energy prices… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 18, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It was another quiet night with lots of political speculation and some news. Gen. Michael Flynn was apparently offered National Security Advisor, and Sen. Jeff Session has been offered Attorney General, according to the AP. Meanwhile, in the markets, we are seeing some moderation… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 17, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] In terms of market and economic news, it was a fairly quiet night. Chair Yellen gave testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. The prepared remarks were, for the most part, unremarkable. There was no mention of the new president which, for Yellen,… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 16, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] After a day of profit taking, the previous trends have returned; the dollar is up as are Treasury yields. Gold prices are lower. Oil prices are giving back some of their large gains from yesterday as the API data showed a larger than expected… Read More »