Research & News
Daily Comment (October 4, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] BREAKING NEWS: The IMF has updated its economic forecasts. Although world GDP growth remains steady, it has lowered Eurozone and U.S. GDP. Overall, economic growth remains sluggish. For the second straight day, the British pound (GBP) is taking a “pounding.” The proximate cause is PM May’s… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – American Foreign Policy: A Review, Part I (October 3, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady In watching the political debates in the U.S. this election season, there appears to be a general misunderstanding of American foreign policy. Although we have touched on this issue before, with the elections only about a month away, it seemed like a good time to review U.S. foreign policy since WWII. This week,… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 3, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Politics mostly dominated the weekend news flow, although Deutsche Bank (DB, $13.09, +1.61) was in the news, too. German markets are closed for a holiday (it’s Unification Day, the holiday that commemorates the official day when East and West Germany were reunited), so we haven’t seen… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 30, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, the FOMC left rates unchanged, as expected. The statement was rather hawkish but the accompanying information, such as the “dots” chart, was mostly dovish. Note that three of the 17 members of the committee want to stand pat for the rest of the year and two want to raise rates… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 30, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The market’s focus continues to center on the banking system, with Deutsche Bank (DB, $11.48, -0.82) being the most market relevant, although the travails of bankers testifying before Congress hasn’t helped the sector. Deutsche Bank is the bigger issue because it raises fears of systemic problems. … Read More »
Daily Comment (September 29, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Oil prices jumped yesterday on an announcement that OPEC had arrived at a deal to cut production. This was mostly unexpected (we didn’t expect it). According to early reports, the cartel agreed to cut output by 0.7 mbpd, which included a 0.4 mbpd cut by Saudi… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 28, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Overall, there wasn’t much news overnight. We haven’t had much to say about Deutsche Bank (DB, $11.92, +0.07), although there have been legitimate fears that Germany’s largest bank could need a bailout despite protests to the contrary. Shares did lift this morning on news that the… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 27, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The first presidential debate was held last night and Sen. Clinton won by nearly all accounts. She was, as expected, well prepared. Potentially dangerous areas for her, such as the ongoing e-mail scandal and the Clinton Foundation, were not heavily covered. Much time was spent on… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Goodbye, Dilma. Hello, Michel. (September 26, 2016)
by Kaisa Stucke, CFA On August 31, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff was impeached on charges of breaking budgetary laws, ending nine months of political infighting. The Brazilian Senate voted 61-20 to permanently remove her from her presidential post. Rousseff’s former vice president, Michel Temer, led the impeachment process and has assumed the presidential duties. This week… Read More »