Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The TTIP and the TPP: An Update (October 17, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady In January 2014, we first discussed the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).[1] Both pacts have moved from obscure trade proposals to highly controversial political issues. In this report, we will begin by discussing the nations involved. We will examine overall details of the proposals, focusing on how… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2016)
Although presidential elections gather a lot of attention from investors, we believe the specific person or party getting elected in this cycle may be less important than the forces driving the elections. The Fed is likely to raise rates gradually and we don’t expect the tighter policy to create a recession. Our equity allocations remain… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 17, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The weekend was full of political news and some policy news as well. On the political front, the Trump campaign is pressing its point that the elections could be “rigged” but has widened the definition beyond mere poll manipulation, suggesting the mainstream media is aligned against… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 14, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Given continued sluggish economic growth and fears that monetary policy has reached the point where it can no longer stimulate growth, a renewed attention has been brought to discretionary fiscal policy. In the 1970s, discretionary fiscal policy fell out of favor due to a number of shortcomings: Public investment, if needed, should… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 14, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are trending higher this morning; the rise is being attributed to inflation running a bit higher than expected in China (see below), reducing the issue of deflation. China’s practice of exporting deflation has been a concern for some time, but mildly positive inflation… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 13, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC minutes did have some interesting information but no real surprises. It confirmed what the dissents and the dots chart indicated—the FOMC is divided on policy. The hawks are concerned that waiting too long to raise rates could lead to an overheating economy and force… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 12, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The big news overnight was that PM May will allow Parliament to debate on her plan to exit the EU. The GBP rallied strongly on the reports. However, there is nothing to suggest that she is planning to let the legislature vote on Brexit. There is… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 11, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are mixed this morning. The EuroStoxx 50 is trading higher by 0.4% from the last close. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Apex 50 closed lower by 1.7% from the prior close. Chinese markets were higher, with the Shanghai Composite moving up by 0.6%… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – American Foreign Policy: A Review, Part II (October 10, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, in Part I of this study, we examined the four imperatives of American policy with an elaboration of each one. This week, we will discuss why each is important. We will examine why there has been a “drift” in American foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. This drift… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 10, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are mixed this morning. The EuroStoxx 50 is trading higher by 0.7% from the last close. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Apex 50 closed lower by 0.05% from the prior close. Chinese markets were higher, with the Shanghai Composite moving up by 1.5%… Read More »