Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 16, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Since the beginning of September, 10-year T-note yields have risen from a low of 1.52% to a high of 1.75%. This backup in yields is as issue we are monitoring carefully because we have favored long-duration assets for some time. We analyze long-dated interest rates by starting with a fair value assessment… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 16, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There isn’t a ton of news in the financial markets this morning. The most discussed is the DOJ decision to levy a $14 bn fine against Deutsche Bank AG (DB, $14.76). In European trading, shares were off over 8% overnight. The bank was anticipating a fine… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 15, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The big overnight news was the BOE’s decision to hold rates and bond-buying steady, which was expected. The committee vote was 9-0 in favor of the current policy. The bank did indicate, however, that it was still on course to lower rates later this year and… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 14, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] In the next AAW (published Friday), we will discuss the very important impact of foreign issues on U.S. Treasury yields. This is one reason why the financial markets have become focused on the BOJ’s review of its monetary policy. There are rumors swirling as to what… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 13, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk markets are lower to sideways as oil tumbled this morning after the International Energy Agency revised its global demand estimates lower and indicated that the global inventory glut will last longer than it had previously estimated. Domestic oil inventories are expected to build this week… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – After Karimov (September 12, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady On August 29, the president of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov, died from a cerebral hemorrhage. Karimov had been in office since the founding of Uzbekistan following the fall of the Soviet Union. Given his long tenure in office and the uncertainty that always surrounds the transfer of power in an authoritarian regime, there are… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 12, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although Friday’s sell-off in equities was impressive, the financial chatter over the weekend was almost non-existent. U.S. equity markets have been extended for some time and, so far, investors took Friday in stride. The proximate cause for the drop was a renewed fear of Fed tightening. … Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 9, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Milton Friedman postulated that inflation expectations are established through a lifetime of experience. To some extent, the issue of inflation expectations is similar to other market gauges in our lives, such as the level of financial markets, interest rates and home prices. What we have experienced is considered as “normal” in our… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 9, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There were two big news items overnight. First, North Korea detonated a nuclear device overnight, its fifth such test. Early reports suggest the blast was in the 20 to 30 kiloton range, not a big bomb (by comparison, the standard American warhead, W-88, is 475 kilotons),… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 8, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] This morning’s big news is the ECB’s decision to leave policy unchanged. The EUR rallied, Treasuries dipped and Eurozone yields rose as well. We are well into Draghi’s press conference at the time of this writing and it is evident that the ECB did nothing at… Read More »