Research & News
Keller Quarterly (April 2016)
Letter to Investors An avid baseball fan once invited a business associate to a game. The associate was not much interested in baseball, but he agreed to go. They travelled to the park separately. The true fan got to their seats first well before the game started…and what a game it was! Both pitchers were… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 21, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The ECB maintained its interest rates at historic lows and did not change the size of its QE program. The Eurozone central bank left its benchmark rate at 0.00%, the deposit rate at -0.40%, the marginal lending facility at 0.25% and its QE amount at €80… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 20, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Chinese risk markets traded lower overnight as Chinese officials indicated that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is likely to reduce stimulus over the coming year due to improving economic data. While the PBOC has not released an official statement, at least two government sources have… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 19, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Crude prices rebounded yesterday and are up again overnight. Kuwait announced its plans to expand production back to normal levels despite the worker strike over public sector pay. Kuwaiti officials indicated that some workers have returned to their positions and that the current inventory levels of… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Nagorno-Karabakh (April 18, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady In early April, fighting erupted in the region around Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed area within Azerbaijan but controlled by Armenia. Reporters described the fighting as the worst since the 1994 ceasefire. This region is considered one of the world’s “frozen conflicts,” experiencing periodic unrest. In this report, we will discuss the history and… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2016)
Economic growth will likely remain slow, but stable. We expect the Fed to proceed gradually in raising rates. The labor market continues to strengthen, with more workers entering the labor force, but wage growth remains weak. We expect domestic growth to be higher and more stable than most foreign economies. Therefore, we maintain a significant… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 18, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a news-heavy weekend with numerous major stories and cross currents. Let’s dive in: Doha was an epic bust: Expectations for the oil producers meeting were rather low going in. Freezing already high production levels wasn’t going to lower the current supply overhang. Nevertheless, the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 15, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee It is becoming apparent that the FOMC is using something other than the Phillips Curve to manage monetary policy. The Phillips Curve postulates that there is a tradeoff between inflation and the labor markets. Economists have developed models based on the Phillips Curve to determine what interest rate target the FOMC “should”… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 15, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s shaping up to be a very busy weekend. In Brazil, the Chamber of Deputies will vote over the next couple of days to decide if the legislature should begin impeachment proceedings. As we noted earlier this week, Brazilian financial markets have rallied on expectations that… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 14, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Oil prices are modestly higher after a small decline yesterday due to a higher than forecast weekly oil inventory report, which we cover below. Prices were down until IEA headlines emerged indicating that the OECD’s oil monitoring body is expecting the oil market to balance later… Read More »