Research & News
Daily Comment (April 4, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There wasn’t too much market news overnight as several Asian markets were closed for holiday. However, there were several major news splashes from WikiLeaks, one of which published a massive database from the offshore law firm Mossack Fonseca. A German newspaper, Süddeutsche Zeitung, obtained the data… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 1, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee In the most recent GDP report, corporate profits plunged. The overall decline in profits was $153 bn in Q4, although some of this drop was due to an $83 bn settlement that BP had with the government over the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill. We have been noting for some time… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 1, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy employment day! We will go into much more detail below, but we are seeing solid improvement in the labor market. Most importantly, the labor force is finally starting to expand; in fact, the unemployment rate rose this month in a good way as the labor… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 31, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Standard & Poor’s lowered China’s credit rating outlook from stable to negative, citing a slower than expected economic rebalancing. Although Chinese risk markets dropped initially, they have recovered since, indicating that the rating outlook cut is not likely to have a long-term effect. We saw similar… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 30, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk markets surged globally yesterday as Fed Chair Yellen re-confirmed the central bank’s intention to move rates up slowly, citing weak global growth. This was exactly the kind of reconciliatory signal that the markets were looking for after several FRB presidents had voiced their support for… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 29, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] European markets opened strongly higher after the long Easter holiday, but have given back some of the gains in early morning trading. Asian equities were mixed, with Chinese markets trading lower. All eyes will be turned to Fed Chairman Yellen’s address to the Economic Club of… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 28, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Trading was quiet overnight. Hong Kong and European markets are closed for Easter Monday, which limited market activity. On Good Friday, the Commerce Department issued the GDP report for Q4 (see below). In addition to our usual coverage, we want to highlight a couple of important… Read More »
Quarterly Energy Comment (March 24, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady The Market Oil prices have fallen steadily over the past year, reaching a new low early in the first quarter just below $30 per barrel. Since mid-February, they have staged an impressive recovery. Oil Prices and Inventories This rally has occurred despite historic levels of U.S. commercial crude oil inventories. The chart… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 24, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As noted below, St. Louis FRB President Bullard has joined a chorus of other regional presidents pushing back against the dovish tone from the last Fed meeting. The change in Fed behavior is discussed in this week’s Asset Allocation Comment, published below on page 7. As… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 23, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] In the aftermath of the terrorist bombings in Belgium, security officials in Europe have been working feverishly to track down the identities of the bombers and search for other terrorist cells. It is widely thought that this cell was already in place and may have decided… Read More »