Research & News
2016: An Update (February 24, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF Summary: This report is an addendum to our original 2016 forecast. In our original 2016 Outlook, we forecasted a year-end S&P 500 of 2214.39, based on earnings of $121.67 and a P/E of 18.2x. As we will document below, we have revised our forecast to 2033.35, with… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2016 Election: An Update (February 22, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady Almost two years ago we published a series on the 2016 elections. In these three reports we suggested that rising discontent among the electorate could increase the odds of electing a president that may turn America away from the superpower role. Although there have been a number of surprises in the current nominating… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Russia’s Struggles (February 8, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady Over the past year, Russia has faced a growing number of challenges that have the potential to weaken President Putin’s hold on the reins of power. In this report, we will discuss recent trends in the country, including the economic problems caused by falling oil prices and the military operations occurring in Ukraine… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Trouble in Taiwan (February 1, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady Taiwan held elections on January 16th and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won a resounding victory over the Kuomintang (KMT). This election will likely raise tensions between Taiwan and Mainland China (People’s Republic of China, PRC). In this report, we will begin with a history of Taiwan. Next, we will recap the election… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Italy’s Banking Crisis (January 25, 2016)
by Kaisa Stucke, CFA On January 1, 2016, the EU implemented a new bank restructuring directive. The new and stricter rules are aimed at forcing private stock, bond and deposit holders to accept losses before public funds would be used in a bank restructuring. Although all EU countries are affected by these new rules, Italy remains… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2016)
Low global growth rates and tighter Fed policy are combining to lower financial market return potential, while increasing overall volatility. We believe U.S. growth will remain low and the Fed will raise rates gradually. At this point we do not foresee a recession. The low growth rate in the U.S. will likely be higher than… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Saudi Executions (January 11, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady On January 2, Saudi Arabia executed 47 people accused of various crimes against the state. Of this unfortunate group, 46 were Sunni jihadist radicals and one was a Shiite cleric, Sheik Nimr al-Nimr. Al-Nimr’s execution set off protests in Iran and the Saudi Embassy in Tehran was sacked. In response, the Saudis broke… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (January 2016)
Letter to Investors The turning of the annual calendar occasions all sorts of prognostications in our profession. We prefer not to think in terms of forecasts, but rather in terms of probable scenarios. All sorts of things are possible in 2016, but not all scenarios are equally probable. For example, a great many purveyors of… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2016 Geopolitical Outlook (December 14, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady As is our custom, we close out the current year with our outlook for the next one. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape in the upcoming year. It is not designed to be exhaustive;… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Evolution of IS (December 7, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady An Islamic State (IS) affiliate downed Russian Metrojet Flight 9268 in October. In November, IS-affiliated terrorists launched a series of attacks in Paris. These two events suggest a significant change in the behavior of IS. Prior to the Paris attacks, IS appeared to be focused on building a caliphate in Syria and Iraq. … Read More »