Research & News
Daily Comment (August 18, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC minutes offered a short period of market volatility; the initial reaction was hawkish but that faded rather quickly. After reading the full report, it appears that the majority of members believe that: International events will continue to act as a drag on inflation and… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 17, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was another quiet night for news, typical of summer. The most interesting information came from NY FRB President Dudley and Atlanta FRB President Lockhart, who both suggested that the September Fed meeting (9/20-21) is “live” and the markets are underestimating the odds of a rate… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 16, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk markets are mixed today in the midst of relatively thin global trading volumes. The dollar continued to slide lower amidst lower expectations for a Fed hike. The chart below shows the year-to-date move in the dollar, which has given back the gains it made due… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Thinking about Thinking: Part I (August 15, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady We are in the “dog days” of summer. The world is in turmoil. The U.S. presidential elections offer us a stark choice between a traditional establishment candidate and a populist alternative. Populism is on the rise in Europe, exhibited by the Brexit vote. Lone wolf terrorist attacks seem to occur with frightening regularity. … Read More »
Daily Comment (August 15, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are moving higher alongside oil as the outlook for a Fed rate hike has become more dovish. The market-implied likelihood of a September hike fell to 18.0% this morning. However, despite very short-term expectations falling, the probability of a hike has risen for next year. … Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 12, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee We originally published the comments below in our Daily Comment on July 27. However, we have received a number of questions on the widening of the TED spread and the rise in LIBOR to warrant updating the report for this week’s Asset Allocation Weekly. There has been some curious behavior in the… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 12, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Eurozone economic growth came in on forecast, rising 1.6% annually. While growth remains subdued, Q2 marked the 13th consecutive quarter of expansion. German GDP came in better than expected, rising 3.1% annually compared to the 2.8% forecast. At the same time, Italy’s growth disappointed, coming in… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 11, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] European stocks advanced this morning alongside oil after the International Energy Agency (IEA) said it expects the global oil market to improve. In its monthly report, the agency said it expects increasing refining to draw down the ample crude stockpiles, despite some large OPEC producers pumping… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 10, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The dollar fell overnight as the market adjusted its expectations lower for a rate hike. The market-implied probability of a Fed rate hike in September is 22%, and the likelihood reaches 52% in May 2017. The yields on 10- and 30-year U.K. bonds fell to record… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 9, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was another quiet overnight session. Chinese inflation data (see below) was roughly in line with expectations. U.S. equity futures are modestly higher this morning, and Treasuries are rallying a bit as well. If anything, market action is consistent with late summer. However, there are a… Read More »