Research & News
Daily Comment (September 13, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk markets are lower to sideways as oil tumbled this morning after the International Energy Agency revised its global demand estimates lower and indicated that the global inventory glut will last longer than it had previously estimated. Domestic oil inventories are expected to build this week… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – After Karimov (September 12, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady On August 29, the president of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov, died from a cerebral hemorrhage. Karimov had been in office since the founding of Uzbekistan following the fall of the Soviet Union. Given his long tenure in office and the uncertainty that always surrounds the transfer of power in an authoritarian regime, there are… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 12, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although Friday’s sell-off in equities was impressive, the financial chatter over the weekend was almost non-existent. U.S. equity markets have been extended for some time and, so far, investors took Friday in stride. The proximate cause for the drop was a renewed fear of Fed tightening. … Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 9, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Milton Friedman postulated that inflation expectations are established through a lifetime of experience. To some extent, the issue of inflation expectations is similar to other market gauges in our lives, such as the level of financial markets, interest rates and home prices. What we have experienced is considered as “normal” in our… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 9, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There were two big news items overnight. First, North Korea detonated a nuclear device overnight, its fifth such test. Early reports suggest the blast was in the 20 to 30 kiloton range, not a big bomb (by comparison, the standard American warhead, W-88, is 475 kilotons),… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 8, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] This morning’s big news is the ECB’s decision to leave policy unchanged. The EUR rallied, Treasuries dipped and Eurozone yields rose as well. We are well into Draghi’s press conference at the time of this writing and it is evident that the ECB did nothing at… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 7, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are quiet again this morning, with the focus mostly on policy. The ECB meets on Thursday. Although there is a need for the bank to have a wider range of bonds to buy to maintain QE, the Germans are uncomfortable with easing the rules… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 6, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Well, it’s time to say goodbye to the summer. Our reflections on the long weekend’s news: The lead article in Sunday’s NYT was all about climate change and coastal flooding. The report documented rising sea waters affecting numerous communities along the Atlantic Seaboard, although there were… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 2, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee At the recent Kansas City FRB’s gathering at Jackson Hole, the tone from policymakers turned surprisingly hawkish. Vice Chair Stanley Fischer was quoted as saying that two rates hikes are possible this year and the upcoming FOMC meeting in September could generate a rate hike if the payroll numbers are on trend. … Read More »
Daily Comment (September 2, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy labor data day…just before Labor Day weekend! We will spend much of this report going over the data but we want to make a couple of comments about yesterday’s ISM manufacturing data. The report came in unusually weak, at 49.4 compared to expectations of 52.0. … Read More »