Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on the New Cold War (August 21, 2023)
Bill O’Grady | PDF Note: Due to the Labor Day holiday in two weeks, the next edition of this report will be published on September 18. Our geopolitical research over the past 15 years has had a consistent theme—that U.S. hegemony is under strain. Essentially, costs of America’s hegemonic role have become unbearable for the… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 21, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a discussion of the important U.S.-Japan-South Korea summit on Friday and what it means for the global national security environment. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 18, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment covers three main themes: 1) The impact of better-than-expected growth on global interest rates; 2) How China’s economic troubles are not going away anytime soon; 3) Why investors will be paying close attention to gatherings in South Africa… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 17, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment will cover three key themes: what the latest FOMC meeting minutes could mean for monetary policy going forward, an update on the latest complaints regarding artificial intelligence, and why the upcoming Argentine election in October has investors on… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 17, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices did break out of the trading range but were unable to maintain the uptrend. We suspect the recent pullback is corrective in nature and not the start of a major selloff. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 6.0 mb, much lower… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 16, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a brief remark on the importance of linking geopolitics to investment strategy. We next review a range of international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including another instance in which U.S.-China… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 15, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with disappointing news on the Chinese economy. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including data showing Japan’s economic growth is now far surpassing… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 14, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with new evidence that China’s slowing economy may be setting the scene for a potential financial crisis. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Where’s the Recession? Examining Employment (August 14, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In August of last year, our yield-curve indicator signaled an inversion, which implies that a recession is set to occur within 16 months, on average. And so, we are still within range of a recession occurring by year’s end. However, the economic data continues to show improvement, raising… Read More »