Research & News
Daily Comment (May 18, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There are two items of interest this morning, which are linked. First, worries about the Fed moving rates higher are starting to rise. Fed funds futures are now projecting a 12% chance of a hike in June. Although this level remains low, it is up from… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 17, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] After a strong rally yesterday, we are seeing some consolidation this morning. There is lots of news this week, with a full lineup of U.S. economic data today (see below), Fed minutes tomorrow and a G-7 meeting over the weekend. The latter will be quite interesting. … Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of Helicopter Money: Part 3 (May 16, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady Two weeks ago, we described the process of “monetary funded fiscal spending” (MFFS), including a discussion of why it might be implemented, how it would work and the potential problems that could come with using it. Last week, we examined two historical examples where forms of MFFS were implemented, Japan in the 1930s… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 16, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Oil prices are surging this morning as short-term outages dominate the news. Conflict in the Delta region of Nigeria has reduced production by 0.6 mbpd. Although Canadian production does appear to be returning, the recent outages will likely lead to inventory declines in the U.S. for… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 13, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee With Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton becoming the presumptive nominees for the Republican and Democratic Parties, respectively, this week’s Asset Allocation Weekly will offer some of our initial thoughts on this election cycle. We will offer more in-depth analysis in the coming months but these highlights express our starting points about the… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 13, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As noted below, there was an interesting divergence between Q1 Eurozone GDP growth and German GDP growth. The former was revised lower to 0.5% (2.0% annualized for the quarter), while German GDP was revised higher to 0.7% (2.8%) from 0.6% (2.4%). Spain also grew strongly, up… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 12, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As expected, the Brazilian Senate voted 55-22[1] in favor of an impeachment trial against President Rousseff. She will step down from power today and VP Michel Temer will take power. A trial will be held over the next 180 days. It ends with a Senate vote. … Read More »
Daily Comment (May 11, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As noted above, global equity markets are lower this morning in a quiet trade. There wasn’t much news overnight and the trade looks like it is taking a breather today after a strong day in the U.S. yesterday. One market that had a strong day yesterday… Read More »
Quarterly Energy Comment (May 10, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady The Market Oil prices have rallied since mid-February and are now back into the price range established last autumn. Oil Prices and Inventories Inventory levels remain elevated but should begin their seasonal decline later this month. In fact, working commercial storage hit an all-time high in April, exceeding the levels reached during… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 10, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although we are seeing higher equity markets in many parts of the world, there is a palpable air of uncertainty. Take yesterday’s market action in Brazil. The leader of the lower house in the Brazilian legislature announced yesterday that last month’s impeachment vote should be annulled. … Read More »