Research & News
Daily Comment (June 23, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Voters in the U.K. go to the polls today to decide whether or not they are staying in the EU. The markets, however, appear to have already voted as we are seeing full “risk-on” activity, with the dollar and yen lower and Treasury yields higher. In… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 22, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] On the eve of the vote in the U.K., polling suggests that the Brexit vote will be close. However, the message coming from the betting pools maintains the leave camp at roughly 25%. (Source: Bloomberg) This chart shows the leave bets, which peaked around 45% but… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 21, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Polling suggests that the Brexit vote will be close. However, that isn’t the message coming from the betting pools, where the leave camp lost another four points. (Source: Bloomberg) This chart shows the leave bets, which peaked around 45% but have fallen precipitously to the 24%… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Real Risk of Brexit (June 20, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady In February, we presented an analysis of Brexit, which is shorthand for Britain’s potential departure from the European Union (EU). The referendum is slated for June 23.[1] In general, the points discussed in the aforementioned report on the economy, trade, regulatory policy, immigration and the U.K.’s geopolitical “footprint” all still hold. There… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 20, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There are three big stories today. Leaning toward Bremain: In the wake of the assassination of MP Jo Cox, the first polls out suggest that the Bremain camp has halted the Brexit momentum. Still, polls suggest a tight race, with 45% wanting to remain in the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 17, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Our asset allocation process has generally favored longer duration fixed income instruments. We have expected inflation to remain low due to continued globalization and deregulation. Over time, low inflation brings low long-term interest rates. In recent weeks, domestic long-term interest rates have declined significantly. Although this isn’t a huge surprise to us,… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 17, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There are three big stories today. Jo Cox, martyr: MP Jo Cox was brutally assassinated yesterday while campaigning for the “remain” vote in Leeds, England yesterday. A Labor MP and a rising star in the party, she was attacked while leaving a meeting with constituents. According… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 16, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The last eight years have been full of unusual events. We have seen ZIRP, NIRP, QE of all stripes, massive increases in central bank balance sheets, collapses in monetary multipliers, low inflation, consistently wrong forecasts of higher interest rates, massive borrowing in China, flash crashes, commodity… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 15, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] BREAKING NEWS: Nigeria announced it is moving toward a market driven exchange rate policy, likely taking steps toward allowing its currency, the naira, to float. Although the Central Bank of Nigeria has allowed more flexible exchange rates recently, allowing a full float will likely lead to… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 14, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk markets remain soft this morning in the wake of the German 10-year yield dipping under zero. (Source: Bloomberg) It is historic enough that we now have the German yield curve below zero going out 10 years. A total of 75% of German bonds now carry… Read More »