Research & News
Daily Comment (May 20, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets were quiet overnight. The G-7 meeting, being held in Japan, is probably the most important event going on at the moment. So far, Japan has been politely discouraged from using tools to weaken the JPY. We suspect that after this meeting ends, Japan will take… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 19, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC minutes were more hawkish than the market expected. In fact, in the minutes, the members expressed concern that the financial markets are underestimating the likelihood of a rate move. The committee felt that foreign risks have lessened and several suggested that the balance of… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 18, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There are two items of interest this morning, which are linked. First, worries about the Fed moving rates higher are starting to rise. Fed funds futures are now projecting a 12% chance of a hike in June. Although this level remains low, it is up from… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 17, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] After a strong rally yesterday, we are seeing some consolidation this morning. There is lots of news this week, with a full lineup of U.S. economic data today (see below), Fed minutes tomorrow and a G-7 meeting over the weekend. The latter will be quite interesting. … Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of Helicopter Money: Part 3 (May 16, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady Two weeks ago, we described the process of “monetary funded fiscal spending” (MFFS), including a discussion of why it might be implemented, how it would work and the potential problems that could come with using it. Last week, we examined two historical examples where forms of MFFS were implemented, Japan in the 1930s… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 16, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Oil prices are surging this morning as short-term outages dominate the news. Conflict in the Delta region of Nigeria has reduced production by 0.6 mbpd. Although Canadian production does appear to be returning, the recent outages will likely lead to inventory declines in the U.S. for… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 13, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee With Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton becoming the presumptive nominees for the Republican and Democratic Parties, respectively, this week’s Asset Allocation Weekly will offer some of our initial thoughts on this election cycle. We will offer more in-depth analysis in the coming months but these highlights express our starting points about the… Read More »