Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on the 25th Anniversary of the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Part 1 (November 17, 2014)
by Bill O’Grady It has been 25 years since the Berlin Wall ceased to divide East and West Berlin. After signifying the “hard border” between two competing world systems where East German security forces “shot to kill” their countrymen who tried to cross into West Berlin, suddenly, Germans were safely pouring across the dividing line. … Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Manufacturing Renaissance? (November 10, 2014)
by Kaisa Stucke, CFA Falling energy prices and historically high domestic hydrocarbon production have left many consumers giddy at the pump, while leaving many investors wondering what the market ramifications of cheap oil and natural gas could be. Short-term effects have included improved consumer confidence and increased consumption as people have more available income. A longer… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – A Smaller World (November 3, 2014)
by Bill O’Grady Being the global superpower is a great burden. There are military, political, economic and financial obligations that are costly to maintain. At the same time, history shows that when there is no dominant hegemon the world tends to suffer from instability and chaos.[1] Although the superpower may wish to abandon the encumbrance, the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Echo of Wirtschaftswunder (October 27, 2014)
by Bill O’Grady Since the initial Greek financial crisis in 2010, economic and financial problems in the Eurozone continue to periodically emerge. The most recent issue is that the Eurozone may soon face deflation; price levels continue to decline. The current yearly CPI is up a mere 0.3%. Although the Eurozone did experience a bout of… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Eighth Default of Argentina (October 20, 2014)
by Kaisa Stucke & Bill O’Grady Very few countries have seen as spectacular of a decline in its economic standing over the past 100 years as Argentina has. The country started the 20th century as one of the richest in the world, but has fallen behind as a result of its turbulent political history and… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Dilma or No Dilma? (October 13, 2014)
by Kaisa Stucke & Bill O’Grady During the first round of Brazilian presidential elections on October 5, the incumbent Dilma Rousseff of the Workers’ Party received 42% of the votes while Aecio Neves of the Social Democracy Party received 34%. Since none of the candidates received more than 50% of the vote, the second round… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Welcome to the World, the Country of Catalonia? (October 6, 2014)
by Kaisa Stucke & Bill O’Grady On November 9, the Catalonia region of Spain is due to hold a referendum for independence. The referendum had previously been approved by the regional government; however, it was ruled unconstitutional by the Spanish Supreme Court. Currently, it is unclear whether the November 9 referendum would result in a… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Ebola (September 29, 2014)
by Kaisa Stucke & Bill O’Grady Last week marked six months since the Ebola outbreak was identified in the African country of Guinea. The current Ebola epidemic is the largest, most severe and most complex outbreak of the disease in the history of the virus. More cases have been diagnosed and more people have died… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 28, 2014)
by Asset Allocation Committee At the founding of our asset allocation process in the second quarter of 2000, the prevailing method of asset allocation was strategic, which is usually defined as an allocation based on a time horizon of at least 7-10 years. However, in practice, strategic programs assumed that adjustments to the model were usually… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The TTIP and the TPP (January 27, 2014)
by Bill O’Grady The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is a trade and investment treaty being negotiated between the European Union (EU) and the U.S. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a similar pact being negotiated between the U.S. and various Pacific Rim nations in both the eastern and western hemisphere. If enacted, both these trade… Read More »