Research & News
Daily Comment (May 13, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As noted below, there was an interesting divergence between Q1 Eurozone GDP growth and German GDP growth. The former was revised lower to 0.5% (2.0% annualized for the quarter), while German GDP was revised higher to 0.7% (2.8%) from 0.6% (2.4%). Spain also grew strongly, up… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 12, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As expected, the Brazilian Senate voted 55-22[1] in favor of an impeachment trial against President Rousseff. She will step down from power today and VP Michel Temer will take power. A trial will be held over the next 180 days. It ends with a Senate vote. … Read More »
Daily Comment (May 11, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As noted above, global equity markets are lower this morning in a quiet trade. There wasn’t much news overnight and the trade looks like it is taking a breather today after a strong day in the U.S. yesterday. One market that had a strong day yesterday… Read More »
Quarterly Energy Comment (May 10, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady The Market Oil prices have rallied since mid-February and are now back into the price range established last autumn. Oil Prices and Inventories Inventory levels remain elevated but should begin their seasonal decline later this month. In fact, working commercial storage hit an all-time high in April, exceeding the levels reached during… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 10, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although we are seeing higher equity markets in many parts of the world, there is a palpable air of uncertainty. Take yesterday’s market action in Brazil. The leader of the lower house in the Brazilian legislature announced yesterday that last month’s impeachment vote should be annulled. … Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of Helicopter Money: Part 2 (May 9, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we described in some detail the process of “monetary funded fiscal spending” (MFFS). Part 1 of this series included a discussion of why MFFS might be implemented, how it would work and the potential problems that come with using it. In this week’s report, we will examine two historical examples where… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 9, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There were five major news items over the weekend: Saudi Oil Minister al-Naimi sacked: Al-Naimi, who has been oil minister since 1995, was unceremoniously fired over the weekend, replaced with another Saudi Aramco official, Khalid al-Falih. Al-Naimi was considered a good administrator and was the de… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 6, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee In our latest adjustment to the asset allocation portfolios, we added to the REIT positions in three of the four models. One of the reasons we remain friendly to this asset class has been the steady increase in rental income. This chart shows rental income from the National Income and Product… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 6, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s employment data Friday! We will update all the numbers below but the short summary is that the data was a bit soft. Non-farm payrolls disappointed, and the unemployment rate fell only because the labor force contracted less than employment did in the household survey. Global… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 5, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Oil prices moved higher overnight on the Canadian oil sands wildfire and escalation of fighting in Libya, both leading to speculation of supply contraction. The Fort McMurray oil sands wildfire has spread to five times its initial size, leading to the evacuation of the entire town… Read More »