Research & News
Quarterly Energy Comment (March 24, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady The Market Oil prices have fallen steadily over the past year, reaching a new low early in the first quarter just below $30 per barrel. Since mid-February, they have staged an impressive recovery. Oil Prices and Inventories This rally has occurred despite historic levels of U.S. commercial crude oil inventories. The chart… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 24, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As noted below, St. Louis FRB President Bullard has joined a chorus of other regional presidents pushing back against the dovish tone from the last Fed meeting. The change in Fed behavior is discussed in this week’s Asset Allocation Comment, published below on page 7. As… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 23, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] In the aftermath of the terrorist bombings in Belgium, security officials in Europe have been working feverishly to track down the identities of the bombers and search for other terrorist cells. It is widely thought that this cell was already in place and may have decided… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 22, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The big overnight news was a series of apparent terrorist bombings in Belgium. At the time of this writing, 34 are confirmed dead after two bombing attacks, one at the Brussels airport and the other at a metro station near EU headquarters. There have been reports… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Russian Withdrawal (March 21, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady On March 14th, Russian President Vladimir Putin surprised the world with an announcement of the withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria. The move was unexpected and has raised questions as to whether Russia will really pull its forces out of Syria, and if so, why? In this report, we will examine Russia’s… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 21, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There wasn’t too much news over the weekend. Perhaps the most interesting news came from the NYT, which carried a report that establishment Republicans are considering a third-party candidate if Donald Trump wins the nomination. Although such actions are not seen often in the U.S., they… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 18, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As noted below, we have a large number of Fed speakers today. Perhaps we will get further insight into the FOMC’s thinking on policy. It is becoming increasingly evident that the Taylor Rule models, which incorporate the Phillips Curve, are either out or being temporarily superseded. … Read More »
Daily Comment (March 17, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Before we dive into the Fed and oil prices this morning, there are a couple of geopolitical items worth noting. First, Brazil is facing massive civil unrest this morning after wiretaps revealed that President Rousseff offered to appoint former President Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva as… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 16, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s FOMC Day! Although no change in rates is expected, we will be paying close attention to the data forecasts and the dots chart forecast of future policy rates. As we note in the Mankiw model discussion below, unless one has concluded that the Phillips Curve… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 15, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Overnight, the BOJ did as expected, leaving policy unchanged. Governor Kuroda’s outlook for the economy was rather bleak, suggesting that there may be more policy measures coming. Unfortunately, there is growing doubt over the efficacy of further policy easing. The reaction to negative rates hasn’t been… Read More »