Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Saudi Succession (January 20, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady On New Year’s Eve, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia was hospitalized with pneumonia. According to reports, he is taking visitors and will probably survive this illness. On the other hand, the king is at least 90 years old and is becoming increasingly frail. In light of his advanced age and declining health, an… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – European Populism (January 12, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady In our 2015 Geopolitical Outlook, one of the risks we discussed was the rise of populism. In this week’s report, we will focus on European populism. The recent attack on the employees of Charlie Hebdo in France makes this a timely topic. In this report, we will define populism, examine why populism has… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Cuban Thaw (January 5, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady On Wednesday, December 17, 2014, President Obama surprised the country by announcing a prisoner exchange and negotiations to begin establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba. Given that the Eisenhower administration broke off diplomatic relations with Cuba in January 1961, even considering resuming relations is a major change in policy. In this report, we will… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2015 Geopolitical Outlook (December 15, 2014)
by Bill O’Grady As is our custom, we close out the current year with our outlook for the next one. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international situation in the upcoming year. It is not designed to be exhaustive;… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Hungary’s PM: Madman or Geopolitical Genius? (December 8, 2014)
by Kaisa Stucke, CFA Hungary has seen increasing domestic civil unrest over centralization of power and international criticism over potential changes in its democratic process. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban supports the creation of an “illiberal democracy,” noting that countries with restricted democracies have been the rising stars on the international front. He is also one… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on the 25th Anniversary of the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Part 2 (November 24, 2014)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we began our two-part series on the fall of the Berlin Wall with an examination of the end of Marxism. In this report, we will examine the rest of the important consequences from the fall of the Berlin Wall. These are: The Collapse of the U.S.S.R. The Onset of the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on the 25th Anniversary of the Fall of the Berlin Wall: Part 1 (November 17, 2014)
by Bill O’Grady It has been 25 years since the Berlin Wall ceased to divide East and West Berlin. After signifying the “hard border” between two competing world systems where East German security forces “shot to kill” their countrymen who tried to cross into West Berlin, suddenly, Germans were safely pouring across the dividing line. … Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Manufacturing Renaissance? (November 10, 2014)
by Kaisa Stucke, CFA Falling energy prices and historically high domestic hydrocarbon production have left many consumers giddy at the pump, while leaving many investors wondering what the market ramifications of cheap oil and natural gas could be. Short-term effects have included improved consumer confidence and increased consumption as people have more available income. A longer… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – A Smaller World (November 3, 2014)
by Bill O’Grady Being the global superpower is a great burden. There are military, political, economic and financial obligations that are costly to maintain. At the same time, history shows that when there is no dominant hegemon the world tends to suffer from instability and chaos.[1] Although the superpower may wish to abandon the encumbrance, the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Echo of Wirtschaftswunder (October 27, 2014)
by Bill O’Grady Since the initial Greek financial crisis in 2010, economic and financial problems in the Eurozone continue to periodically emerge. The most recent issue is that the Eurozone may soon face deflation; price levels continue to decline. The current yearly CPI is up a mere 0.3%. Although the Eurozone did experience a bout of… Read More »