Research & News
Daily Comment (April 26, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC meeting starts today; although there are no expectations of a change in policy at this meeting, we will be closely watching the balance of risks statement. For the past few meetings, the Fed has mostly refused to comment on the balance of risks, but… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Impeachment Proceedings of Dilma Rousseff (April 25, 2016)
by Kaisa Stucke, CFA Brazil’s lower house voted on April 17th to impeach President Dilma Rousseff by a vote of 367 to 137. The process now moves to the Senate, where the country’s 81 senators are expected to vote sometime in the next few weeks, although a final date has not been set. For almost a… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 25, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a remarkably quiet weekend and that pattern has continued into this morning. Risk markets are easing this morning in what looks more like tactical profit taking. The BOJ and Fed both meet this week, with the former finishing its meeting on Thursday and the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 22, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Although it is a widely held assertion that lower gasoline prices will lead to stronger consumption, this correlation has been mostly absent following the most recent decline in fuel prices. We suspect that household deleveraging has tended to weaken the expected impact of lower gasoline prices. However, there does appear to be… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 22, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Japanese risk markets traded higher on reports that the BOJ may consider negative rate loan programs for banks, making the lending facility more attractive. Under the program, the BOJ would pay banks to borrow under certain conditions. The BOJ is scheduled to meet next week and… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (April 2016)
Letter to Investors An avid baseball fan once invited a business associate to a game. The associate was not much interested in baseball, but he agreed to go. They travelled to the park separately. The true fan got to their seats first well before the game started…and what a game it was! Both pitchers were… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 21, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The ECB maintained its interest rates at historic lows and did not change the size of its QE program. The Eurozone central bank left its benchmark rate at 0.00%, the deposit rate at -0.40%, the marginal lending facility at 0.25% and its QE amount at €80… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 20, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Chinese risk markets traded lower overnight as Chinese officials indicated that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is likely to reduce stimulus over the coming year due to improving economic data. While the PBOC has not released an official statement, at least two government sources have… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 19, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Crude prices rebounded yesterday and are up again overnight. Kuwait announced its plans to expand production back to normal levels despite the worker strike over public sector pay. Kuwaiti officials indicated that some workers have returned to their positions and that the current inventory levels of… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Nagorno-Karabakh (April 18, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady In early April, fighting erupted in the region around Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed area within Azerbaijan but controlled by Armenia. Reporters described the fighting as the worst since the 1994 ceasefire. This region is considered one of the world’s “frozen conflicts,” experiencing periodic unrest. In this report, we will discuss the history and… Read More »