Research & News
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2015)
The Federal Reserve decided not to raise rates in the third quarter. Attention now turns to if, when and how it will raise rates going forward. Although we expect the Fed to move gradually and not cause a recession, the likelihood of policy errors has increased. We continue to believe both growth and inflation are… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The TPP (October 19, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady On October 6, trade negotiators announced a final agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a multilateral trade deal between 12 Pacific Rim nations in both the eastern and western hemispheres. In this report, we will begin by discussing the nations involved. We will examine some of the details of the treaty. An analysis… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – “Catalonia, a New State within Europe”? (October 12, 2015)
by Kaisa Stucke, CFA “Catalonia, a new state within Europe” is the slogan of the pro-independence secession movement in the Spanish region of Catalonia. Catalonia has always pined for more autonomy, but calls for secession have intensified as the Spanish economy has suffered from slow growth and corruption scandals have discredited the central government. At the… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (October 2015)
Letter to Investors Back before talk radio became the domain of either political opinionates or “shock talkers,” it was dominated by the friendly conversation of morning humorists in the path established by Arthur Godfrey. Here in St. Louis, a very funny fellow named Jack Carney dominated the airwaves in the mid-morning for a generation. At… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Putin and Syria (October 5, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady Last month, Russia moved a significant amount of military hardware into areas of Syria controlled by the Assad regime. The action caught the Obama administration by surprise and raises questions about what Russian President Putin is trying to accomplish. In this report, we will examine Russia’s short-term geostrategic goals and the tactics Putin… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – El Niño Update (September 28, 2015)
by Kaisa Stucke, CFA Meteorologists have been calling for an El Niño event since last year. Current forecasts place the likelihood of an El Niño occurrence this winter at over 90%. Now, talk has turned from the likelihood of an El Niño to whether the abnormal weather pattern event will be super-sized or monster-sized. Water temperatures… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Meet Jeremy Corbyn (September 21, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady On September 12th, Jeremy Corbyn, a longtime Member of Parliament (MP), was elected as the new leader of the U.K.’s Labour Party. When he announced he would run in June, his candidacy for the position appeared laughable, but by the time the party election was held it was clear that Corbyn would… Read More »
Quarterly Energy Comment (September 3, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady The Market Over the past year, oil prices fell sharply into the first quarter, remained rangebound from January through March, rallied above $60 per barrel in the spring and early summer, and then slid to new lows in August. Recently, we have seen a sharp bounce in prices; in fact, it is… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Bremmer’s Choices (August 31, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we wrote our first formal book review as a Weekly Geopolitical Report. The book, Superpower: Three Choices for America’s Role in the World, is a recently published book by Ian Bremmer in which he discusses three models for American foreign policy. In our closing comments last week, we promised to… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Book Review: Superpower (August 24, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady This is the first formal book review we have conducted as a Weekly Geopolitical Report, although we have leaned heavily on books or papers for much of the content in other reports. We believe this book is important because of its message and due to the proximity to the 2016 elections. Our… Read More »