Research & News
Daily Comment (July 25, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with China news, including signals of economic support from a meeting of the Communist Party’s Politburo. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – China’s Collapsing Population (July 24, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In early 2020, we published a detailed, multi-part analysis of global demographic trends (see our Weekly Geopolitical Report from February 10, 2020). That report showed how falling birth rates and rising life expectancies have led to slower population growth, population aging, and weaker economic activity in countries ranging from China… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 24, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with several notes on China’s worsening relations with the U.S. and other members of the U.S. geopolitical and economic bloc. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 21, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with an explanation of why today could be a rocky day for markets. Next, we will discuss two major developments that may reshape international finance. Finally, we will share our thoughts on the Spanish elections occurring on… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our three-year forecast still includes a relatively mild recession followed by a recovery and the potential for an economic expansion. We expect inflation to moderate in the near-term but modestly re-accelerate in the back half of the forecast period given underlying structural influences. The Fed’s monetary policy is… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 20, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with our concerns about the banking sector. We then discuss how the war in Ukraine and El Niño could impact Fed policy. Finally, we explain why the recent improvement in U.S.-China relations may be short-lived. Deposit Flight:… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 20, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF On Monday, oil prices spiked on reports that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) was going to extend its voluntary production cuts until year’s end. The report was incorrect but does show the power that the news has on the oil markets. (Source: Barchart.com)… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (July 2023)
Letter to Investors | PDF At least once a decade, the stock market vibrates with excitement over a new technology and, in this revelry, the stocks of any company close to that technology separate themselves from the rest of the market as a rocket separates itself from the ground. That remarkable upward surge in stock… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 19, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with good news on consumer price inflation in the United Kingdom, which has helped push down bond yields so far this morning. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to… Read More »