Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Rising US & Global Debt: A Perspective Check (November 4, 2024)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF Concern has been rising across American society and throughout much of the world about the level of United States government debt. An increasing number of voices are sounding the alarm that the debt level is unsustainable, and crisis is on the way. Debates rage about how such a crisis… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Inflation Adjustment for Social Security Benefits in 2025 (October 28, 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Even for dedicated, successful investors who have built up a substantial nest egg, Social Security retirement and disability investments can be an important part of their financial security. For many Americans, Social Security benefits may be the only significant source of income in advanced age. On average, Social… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our three-year forecast includes balanced economic growth, albeit at a slower pace than recent experience, and inflation settling above the Fed’s target rate. The Fed is expected to continue easing at a measured pace over the next year. We initiated a position in long-duration, zero-coupon Treasurys as a… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (October 2024)
Letter to Investors | PDF “Will it play in Peoria?” That wonderfully alliterative question originated in the show business community. A show that might “knock ‘em dead” in New York might not be so popular in the rest of the country. We live in a big nation. While there is a commonality that binds us… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Israel’s Pager Caper and Supply Chain Security (October 21, 2024)
by Bill O’Grady and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Can you trust your refrigerator? What if it could be weaponized against you, perhaps by being booby-trapped to explode, release poisonous gas, or just stop working on the command of some foreign enemy communicating with its computer chip? Just as important, if everyday products connected to… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Yield Curve Un-Inverts (October 14, 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Although the financial press has failed to discuss it at length, the United States bond market has just exited a long period in which the yield curve (the range of bond yields across maturities) was inverted (longer-term yields were lower than shorter-term yields). One popular summary measure of… Read More »