Research & News
The 2024 Outlook: Slow-Bicycle Economy (December 18, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, Thomas Wash, Bill O’Grady, and Mark Keller, CFA Summary of Expectations | PDF The Economy Economic Growth We expect the U.S. economy to continue growing into 2024, but its momentum has been slowing, and slowing momentum will put the economy at increased risk of recession. As the growth rate continues to… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 18, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with several items related to the U.S.-China geopolitical rivalry and what it means for investors. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including more… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 15, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Risk assets surge as bullish winds sweep the market, while the Las Vegas Raiders dismantled their AFC West rivals in a dominant win. In today’s Comment, we unpack the dollar’s accelerating decline, dissect the shift away from mega-cap stocks, and… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 14, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Risk assets surge as investors shake off recent jitters, while Giannis Antetokounmpo lit up the court with a 60-point performance. Today’s Comment navigates the key questions on the minds of many: Will central banks pivot soon? Are investors finally ready… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (December 14, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (N.B. The Weekly Energy Update is going on indefinite hiatus. Next year, look for a new report format.) Crude oil prices are continuing to break down despite OPEC+ efforts to restrain supply. Commercial crude oil inventories fell 4.3 mb compared to forecasts of a… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 13, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with some notes on a major Communist Party economic conference in China. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including some new details on… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 12, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a disagreement at the big COP28 climate change conference over whether to call for an eventual phase-out of fossil fuels. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2024 Geopolitical Outlook (December 11, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady & Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (This is the final BWGR of 2023; the next report will be published on January 15, 2024.) As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of… Read More »