Research & News
Daily Comment (January 6, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our first Comment of the New Year opens with the same old geopolitical tensions in Asia, this time with reports touching China, Taiwan, and Japan. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets… Read More »
The 2025 Outlook: A Year of Political and Policy Change (December 20, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, Daniel Ortwerth, and Mark Keller, CFA Summary of Expectations | PDF The Economy Economic Growth We expect the US economy to keep growing throughout 2025, with no recession. However, current growth is only moderate, and because of elevated real interest rates and cooling labor demand, growth could… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2025 Geopolitical Outlook (December 16, 2024)
by the Confluence Macroeconomic Team | PDF (This is the final BWGR of 2024; the next report will be published on January 13, 2025.) Each December, we at Confluence publish our annual Geopolitical Outlook to give readers a sense of the issues that will likely dominate the international landscape in the coming year. We don’t… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Household Cash Levels and the S&P 500 (December 9, 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Retail money market levels remain elevated. This chart shows the weekly Friday close for the S&P 500 along with the level of retail money market funds. In general, cash being held can either remain held, be used to purchase goods and services, or be used to buy financial… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Bonds and the Post-Election Environment (November 25, 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The election results are in and, contrary to expectations, voters rendered a quick and clear outcome, with Donald Trump set to return to the White House. The central case prior to the election was that the outcome would be drawn out and contentious — an outcome that would… Read More »