Research & News
Daily Comment (July 27, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with a summary of the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy rate decision and our views on the path of rates going forward. Next, we provide an overview of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision. Finally, we… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 27, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices have moved into the upper end of the trading range. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 0.6 mb, less than the 2.0 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged. In the details, U.S. crude oil production fell 0.1 mbpd to 12.2… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 26, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with news that China is making new progress toward developing a network of naval facilities in the waters of the Indo-Pacific region. We next review a range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 25, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with China news, including signals of economic support from a meeting of the Communist Party’s Politburo. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – China’s Collapsing Population (July 24, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In early 2020, we published a detailed, multi-part analysis of global demographic trends (see our Weekly Geopolitical Report from February 10, 2020). That report showed how falling birth rates and rising life expectancies have led to slower population growth, population aging, and weaker economic activity in countries ranging from China… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 24, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with several notes on China’s worsening relations with the U.S. and other members of the U.S. geopolitical and economic bloc. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 21, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with an explanation of why today could be a rocky day for markets. Next, we will discuss two major developments that may reshape international finance. Finally, we will share our thoughts on the Spanish elections occurring on… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our three-year forecast still includes a relatively mild recession followed by a recovery and the potential for an economic expansion. We expect inflation to moderate in the near-term but modestly re-accelerate in the back half of the forecast period given underlying structural influences. The Fed’s monetary policy is… Read More »