Research & News
Daily Comment (November 8, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning. Equity markets are mostly treading water this morning, and Chair Powell will speak later today. Interest rates are also mostly steady, but commodities are mixed as oil and gold are lower while grains are higher. In today’s Comment, we start… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 7, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning. It’s a risk-off day in the markets. As we noted above, global equities are mostly lower. Commodities are weaker as well on fears of weaker economic growth. We are seeing a rally in Treasuries in light of broader market weakness. … Read More »
Daily Comment (November 6, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Israel-Hamas conflict, where we continue to see a risk that the fighting could expand regionally and potentially even draw in the U.S. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Inflation Adjustment for Social Security Benefits in 2024 (November 6, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Social Security was the second-largest contributor to the increase in the fiscal deficit in 2023 (behind only net interest on debt), accounting for $134 billion. Much of the increase in entitlement spending was due to the 8.7% surge in cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs), which was the largest jump since… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 3, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Equities are surging due to the employment data, and Victor Wembanyama has proved that being tall and mobile makes it easier to score points in basketball. Today’s Comment begins with a discussion on how central bank policy impacts bond yields,… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 2, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Equities are off to a great start and the Texas Rangers are the new World Series champions. Today’s Comment starts with a discussion about the latest FOMC meeting, followed by our thoughts on the dollar, and an update on the… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (November 2, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices are off their recent highs on expectations that the Hamas crisis will remain contained. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories rose 0.8 mb compared to forecasts of a 2.0 mb build. The SPR was unchanged, which puts the net build at… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 1, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with new examples of how the Chinese Communist Party and government are intruding ever-more strongly into the economy. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 31, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a note about the Pentagon’s annual report on Chinese military power. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including the latest on the… Read More »