Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Middle East: Land of Fault Lines (May 6, 2024)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF Conflict in the Middle East is one of the most persistent themes in current events. Not only is this true today, but Middle Eastern discord has dominated the news flow throughout most of our lives. At Confluence, we recognize that this enduring pattern of strife reveals the presence of… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Peace Dividend, Government Debt, and Yield Curve Control (April 29, 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen recently castigated the European governments that slashed their defense spending at the end of the Cold War and then remained far too complacent about the growing threat from Russia in recent years. According to Frederiksen, hiking their defense budgets as is now necessary… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our forecast does not include a recession during the three-year period. The US economy is expected to be relatively strong throughout the forecast period. We expect heightened geopolitical tensions to persist as the deglobalization trend continues. Inflation is likely to remain higher due to structural forces such as… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Changing Face of War (April 22, 2024)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF If the United States were at war with another great power, would we know it? How would we know it? These questions might seem absurd but consider that the US has not fought a war against a major world power since 1945. Meanwhile, when the US has engaged in… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (April 2024)
Letter to Investors | PDF “What could go wrong?” When that question is uttered with confidence, wise folks immediately brace themselves for calamity. It is an oddity of the stock market that the more quickly a stock ascends in price, the less often people seem to worry about what could go wrong. Rising stock prices… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Incremental Uranium Demand for Weapons (April 15, 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In our Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly report from March 4, 2024, we began to explain more fully our recent decision to introduce uranium and uranium miners into our Asset Allocation strategies. Our key thesis was that current and planned investments in new nuclear reactors for electricity generation, especially in… Read More »