Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Opportunities and Risks in a Tripolar Nuclear World (May 15, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Some 30 years into China’s development boom, it’s no longer controversial to say that tomorrow’s global investment environment will be shaped by Beijing’s effort to displace the United States as the world’s dominant country. China remains focused on building its various sources of power, whether they be political, economic, technological,… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 15, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a major mining merger that underscores our oft-stated view that global commodity markets are set to enter a prolonged boom period once we get past the expected recession. We next review a wide range of other international… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 12, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment starts with our thoughts about this weekend’s presidential election in Turkey. Next, we explain why the recent drop in the British Pound Sterling (GBP) against the U.S. dollar may not hold. Lastly, we discuss how the controversy in… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 11, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment starts with a discussion about why the market reacted so positively to a subtle drop in U.S. inflation. Next, we provide our thoughts on the latest developments in debt ceiling talks and how they impact U.S. Treasuries. Lastly,… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (May 11, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Although prices have bounced to return to the lower end of the $84/$72 trading range, recession fears continue to dominate sentiment. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories rose 3.0 mb compared to the forecast draw of 2.5 mb. The SPR fell 2.9 mb, putting… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 10, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an overview of the devastating heatwave in Southeast Asia and the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today,… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 9, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a key report on Chinese international trade that points to an early slowdown in the Chinese and global economies. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 8, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with more signs that major countries and companies are shoring up their alliances and operations to counter China’s increasing geopolitical aggressiveness. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Why We Are Keeping Duration Short (May 8, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Financial markets are complicated, and when faced with complication, there is an incentive to simplify. This simplification process takes on several forms, including narratives, bromides, adages, etc. Even the modeling process is a form of simplification. Sayings like “don’t fight the Fed” or “cash is trash” are often… Read More »