Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Oil Weapon Returns (October 2, 2023)
Bill O’Grady | PDF Oil is arguably the most critical commodity. Although food is perhaps more essential to life, most food production today is dependent on fossil fuels. Daniel Yergin’s epic history of oil, The Prize,[1] examines who had oil, who needed oil, and what they did to secure it. Due to oil’s importance, there… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (September 28, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices are breaking out, raising the potential for a move toward $95 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 2.2 mb compared to forecasts of a 2.0 mb build. The SPR fell 0.3 mb, which puts the net draw at 2.4… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Where’s the Recession? A Recap (September 25, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Precise recession forecasting is really difficult. Most recessions occur during periods of tightening monetary policy; however, history shows that monetary policy works with “long and variable lags,” meaning that the impact of rising interest rates doesn’t lead to consistent timing of downturns. It’s a bit like wanting to… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (September 21, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices have continued their rise, with Brent trending toward $95 per barrel. Recent extensions of the production cuts by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) have boosted prices. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 2.1 mb compared to forecasts of a 1.7… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Goodbye Prigozhin (September 18, 2023)
Bill O’Grady | PDF On August 23, an executive jet carrying seven passengers and three crew members crashed near Moscow on a flight to St. Petersburg. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, a private Russian military company, was reportedly one of the passengers. Prigozhin was having an eventful summer. He had led an… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (September 14, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices have continued their rise, with WTI trending towards $90 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories rose 4.0 mb, compared to forecasts of a 2.0 mb draw. The SPR rose 0.3 mb which puts the net build at 4.2 mb (the… Read More »