Research & News
Weekly Energy Update (October 19, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Continued tensions in the Middle East are supporting crude oil prices. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 4.5 mb compared to forecasts of a 0.6 mb draw. The SPR was unchanged, which puts the net draw at 4.5 mb. In the details, U.S.… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (October 2023)
Letter to Investors | PDF One quarter ago I discussed the inadvisability of living in the future (or the past), at least as far as investing goes. Much better, we said, to stay in the present, investing in what is, not what if. Today we deal with the difficulty of investing in the present. The… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – What Shall We Call the New Era? (October 16, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Whether you’re a policymaker, an investor, a small business owner, or simply a student of world history and international affairs, it’s useful to have meaningful labels for various epochs. Ideally, such a label is widely accepted and captures some essential aspect of the era you’re thinking about, making it easier… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 13, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF The Hamas attack on Israel did lift oil prices earlier this week, but markets are mainly taking a “wait and see” approach to prices so far. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories jumped 10.2 mb compared to forecasts of a 0.4 mb draw. The… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The FOMC in 2024 (October 9, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) votes on monetary policy. The FOMC consists of seven governors, the New York FRB president, and a rotating roster of four regional presidents who serve a one-year term on the committee. This rotation feature means that the policy leanings of… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 5, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF After making a run at $95 per barrel last week, prices are correcting; we suspect rising interest rates are increasing fears of an economic slowdown. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 2.2 mb compared to forecasts of a 1.5 mb build. The SPR… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Oil Weapon Returns (October 2, 2023)
Bill O’Grady | PDF Oil is arguably the most critical commodity. Although food is perhaps more essential to life, most food production today is dependent on fossil fuels. Daniel Yergin’s epic history of oil, The Prize,[1] examines who had oil, who needed oil, and what they did to secure it. Due to oil’s importance, there… Read More »