Research & News
The 2024 Outlook: Slow-Bicycle Economy (December 18, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, Thomas Wash, Bill O’Grady, and Mark Keller, CFA Summary of Expectations | PDF The Economy Economic Growth We expect the U.S. economy to continue growing into 2024, but its momentum has been slowing, and slowing momentum will put the economy at increased risk of recession. As the growth rate continues to… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (December 14, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (N.B. The Weekly Energy Update is going on indefinite hiatus. Next year, look for a new report format.) Crude oil prices are continuing to break down despite OPEC+ efforts to restrain supply. Commercial crude oil inventories fell 4.3 mb compared to forecasts of a… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2024 Geopolitical Outlook (December 11, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady & Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (This is the final BWGR of 2023; the next report will be published on January 15, 2024.) As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (December 7, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices are breaking down despite OPEC+ efforts to restrain supply. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 4.6 mb compared to forecasts of a 3.0 mb draw. The SPR rose 0.3 mb, which puts the net draw at 4.3 mb. In the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – A Pause That Refreshes? (December 4, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF (Note: This is the final AABW of 2023; the next report will be published in January 2024.) In 1929, Coca-Cola® introduced the tagline “a pause that refreshes.” Although other advertising campaigns have come and gone, this line still sticks around in the public consciousness. And, it has moved… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (November 30, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices have retreated from their early October highs. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories rose 1.6 mb compared to forecasts of a 1.7 mb draw. The SPR rose 0.3 mb, which puts the net build at 1.9 mb. In the details, U.S.… Read More »