Research & News
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Inflation Adjustment for Social Security Benefits in 2024 (November 6, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Social Security was the second-largest contributor to the increase in the fiscal deficit in 2023 (behind only net interest on debt), accounting for $134 billion. Much of the increase in entitlement spending was due to the 8.7% surge in cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs), which was the largest jump since… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (November 2, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices are off their recent highs on expectations that the Hamas crisis will remain contained. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories rose 0.8 mb compared to forecasts of a 2.0 mb build. The SPR was unchanged, which puts the net build at… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Investment Implications of the Israel-Hamas Conflict (October 30, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF For investors, geopolitical risks today center on the Great Power competition involving countries like the United States, China, and Russia. Nevertheless, terrorism by non-state actors can still be destabilizing, as shown by the October 7 attacks on Israel by Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist group that controls the Gaza Strip. The… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – A Regime Change in Bonds? (October 23, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Jim Bullard, former president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, based his policy votes and economic analysis, in part, on a concept known as regimes. Our take on his concept is that an edifice of factors underly clearly observable correlations in markets, and when this edifice changes,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our three-year forecast includes a relatively mild recession followed by a recovery and the prospect for an economic expansion. Geopolitical tensions are elevated with heightened potential for increased turmoil in the Middle East. Inflation should moderate in the near-term but may reaccelerate within the forecast period due to… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 19, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Continued tensions in the Middle East are supporting crude oil prices. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 4.5 mb compared to forecasts of a 0.6 mb draw. The SPR was unchanged, which puts the net draw at 4.5 mb. In the details, U.S.… Read More »