Research & News
2023 Outlook: A Recession Year (December 21, 2022)
by Mark Keller, CFA, Bill O’Grady, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Summary of Expectations: A recession is highly probable in 2023. Our base case is a garden-variety recession. Three factors could trigger a deep recession: a. Falling nominal home prices; b. A financial crisis; c. A geopolitical event One factor that could mitigate the downturn… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 20, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Note to readers: the Daily Comment will go on holiday after today’s Comment and will return on January 3, 2022. From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! Our Comment today opens with… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 19, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a review of Japan’s new defense strategy, which was released at the end of last week, and illustrates how Japan intends to become a much more powerful military force and a more potent ally as the U.S.-China… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 16, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Today’s Comment begins with our thoughts about European fragmentation. Next, we discuss how countries within blocs may prioritize their own self-interests over others within their group. Lastly, we review signs that the global economy may enter a recession in 2023. Fragmentation Returns:… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 15, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with a discussion on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision from Wednesday. Next, we provide an overview of both the European Central Bank and Bank of England’s decision to tighten monetary policy. Lastly, we give our thoughts about… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (December 15, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (This will be the last report of 2022; we will resume publication on January 12, 2023.) Crude oil prices continue to come under pressure on worries over economic growth. There was likely some bullish positioning in front of the Russian price cap which is… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 14, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with the continuing troubles in the global cryptocurrency markets, as well as welcome signs that inflation is continuing to slow even outside of the United States. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 13, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with the expected surge in COVID-19 infections in China after it relaxed its pandemic regulations. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including the… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2023 Geopolitical Outlook (December 12, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady & Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (This is the last BWGR of 2022; the next report will be published on January 9, 2023.) As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of… Read More »