Research & News
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Why We Are Keeping Duration Short (May 8, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Financial markets are complicated, and when faced with complication, there is an incentive to simplify. This simplification process takes on several forms, including narratives, bromides, adages, etc. Even the modeling process is a form of simplification. Sayings like “don’t fight the Fed” or “cash is trash” are often… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 5, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment starts with our thoughts about the recent changes to monetary policy in Europe and the U.S. Next, we explain why safe-haven assets have become more attractive over the last few days. Finally, the report ends with a discussion… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 4, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! In the wake of the FOMC, it’s mostly a risk off day so far this morning. Treasury yields were lower overnight, but have reversed higher, the dollar and equities are lower, oil is modestly higher after a hard sell off,… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (May 4, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Recession fears are gripping the oil market, sending prices toward lows last seen in March. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 1.3 mb compared to the forecast draw of 1.5 mb. The SPR fell 2.0 mb, putting the total draw at 3.3 mb.… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 3, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a word on global oil supplies and prices, where a new tanker seizure by Iran would seemingly boost crude oil prices but growing concerns over recession have pushed those prices sharply lower so far today. We next… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 2, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a report showing an acceleration in the Eurozone’s consumer price inflation. While the acceleration was modest, it could still encourage a more aggressive interest-rate hike by the European Central Bank at its policy meeting on Thursday. We… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Implications of the Iran-Saudi Arabia Détente (May 1, 2023)
Bill O’Grady | PDF In early March, China brokered a thaw between Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). The two countries have been at odds for decades, even before the Iranian Revolution in 1979. Essentially, both nations believe themselves to be the rightful leader of the region. The nations had been allied during… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 1, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with several notes on the U.S. economy, including a new federal bank seizure and sale, and the risk of a writer’s strike in Hollywood. We next review a wide range of other U.S. and international developments with the… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 28, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with a deep dive into the GDP data and why we believe that the economy may still be headed for a recession. Next, we give our thoughts on the Bank of Japan’s recent policy decision. Lastly, we… Read More »