Research & News
Daily Comment (April 27, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with our thoughts about the positive news regarding Big Tech and why it may not relieve concerns about a possible downturn. Next, we discuss the controversy regarding regional banks and the Federal Reserve’s new lending facility. Lastly,… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 27, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF After gapping two weeks ago, oil prices have filled the gap on worries about the global economy. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 5.1 mb compared to the forecast draw of 1.5 mb. The SPR fell 1.0 mb, putting the total draw at… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 26, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! It’s a mixed market this morning after a rough day yesterday. The dollar and interest rates are lower, while S&P futures were higher but have seen gains erode as the morning wears on. In today’s Comment, we open with President… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our forecast includes a normal recession, likely beginning later this year. We also expect a recovery during our three-year forecast period. The path of the Fed’s monetary policy will have an outsized effect on markets. Though market expectations are varied, we expect a measured path for fed funds.… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 25, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a leading global investor’s view on the economic implications of climate change and the world’s responses to it (spoiler: the result is more inflation). We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 24, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with new data showing how China’s post-pandemic economic reopening is boosting its imports from other countries, including Australia. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Fed’s Employment Surprise (April 24, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF This is the tightest labor market for Black Americans in U.S. history. The Black unemployment rate fell to an all-time low in March unsurpassed since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began a separate calculation for Black workers in 1972. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate for Black Americans… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 21, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with a discussion about the growing popularity of generative artificial intelligence. Next, we give our thoughts on crypto’s sudden resurgence this year. Lastly, we review the latest developments in the race for clean technology and how they… Read More »