Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on the New Cold War (August 21, 2023)
Bill O’Grady | PDF Note: Due to the Labor Day holiday in two weeks, the next edition of this report will be published on September 18. Our geopolitical research over the past 15 years has had a consistent theme—that U.S. hegemony is under strain. Essentially, costs of America’s hegemonic role have become unbearable for the… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 17, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices did break out of the trading range but were unable to maintain the uptrend. We suspect the recent pullback is corrective in nature and not the start of a major selloff. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 6.0 mb, much lower… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Where’s the Recession? Examining Employment (August 14, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In August of last year, our yield-curve indicator signaled an inversion, which implies that a recession is set to occur within 16 months, on average. And so, we are still within range of a recession occurring by year’s end. However, the economic data continues to show improvement, raising… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 10, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices are challenging the upper end of the trading range but so far have failed to breakout above that level. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories rose 6.8 mb, well above the 3.0 mb build forecast. The SPR rose 1.0 mb. In the… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Economics of National Defense in Great Power Competition (August 7, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Tensions between the United States and China continue to worsen, with the two nations hurtling toward each other in a geopolitical game of chicken that, in a worst case scenario, could potentially end up in war. In the distance, a few possible off-ramps still hold promise, but the two powers… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 3, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices challenged the upper end of the trading range but so far have failed to breakout above that level. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell a massive 17.0 mb, well above the 2.3 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged. In the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Part-Time Troubles (July 31, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The job market has greatly surpassed the expectations of leading experts so far this year. Back in December, a Bloomberg survey found that economists predicted that monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve would push the country into a recession in the first half of 2023. They estimated… Read More »