Research & News
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Part-Time Troubles (July 31, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The job market has greatly surpassed the expectations of leading experts so far this year. Back in December, a Bloomberg survey found that economists predicted that monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve would push the country into a recession in the first half of 2023. They estimated… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 27, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices have moved into the upper end of the trading range. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 0.6 mb, less than the 2.0 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged. In the details, U.S. crude oil production fell 0.1 mbpd to 12.2… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – China’s Collapsing Population (July 24, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In early 2020, we published a detailed, multi-part analysis of global demographic trends (see our Weekly Geopolitical Report from February 10, 2020). That report showed how falling birth rates and rising life expectancies have led to slower population growth, population aging, and weaker economic activity in countries ranging from China… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our three-year forecast still includes a relatively mild recession followed by a recovery and the potential for an economic expansion. We expect inflation to moderate in the near-term but modestly re-accelerate in the back half of the forecast period given underlying structural influences. The Fed’s monetary policy is… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 20, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF On Monday, oil prices spiked on reports that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) was going to extend its voluntary production cuts until year’s end. The report was incorrect but does show the power that the news has on the oil markets. (Source: Barchart.com)… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (July 2023)
Letter to Investors | PDF At least once a decade, the stock market vibrates with excitement over a new technology and, in this revelry, the stocks of any company close to that technology separate themselves from the rest of the market as a rocket separates itself from the ground. That remarkable upward surge in stock… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Are Higher Interest Rates Bearish for Risk Assets? (July 17, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Orthodox finance and economics rests on the idea that higher interest rates reduce economic activity and lower the attractiveness of risk assets. We have no real quarrel with the part about reducing economic activity as higher borrowing costs will tend to slow investment and consumer durable spending. The… Read More »