Research & News
Weekly Energy Update (August 10, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices are challenging the upper end of the trading range but so far have failed to breakout above that level. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories rose 6.8 mb, well above the 3.0 mb build forecast. The SPR rose 1.0 mb. In the… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Economics of National Defense in Great Power Competition (August 7, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Tensions between the United States and China continue to worsen, with the two nations hurtling toward each other in a geopolitical game of chicken that, in a worst case scenario, could potentially end up in war. In the distance, a few possible off-ramps still hold promise, but the two powers… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 3, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices challenged the upper end of the trading range but so far have failed to breakout above that level. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell a massive 17.0 mb, well above the 2.3 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged. In the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Part-Time Troubles (July 31, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The job market has greatly surpassed the expectations of leading experts so far this year. Back in December, a Bloomberg survey found that economists predicted that monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve would push the country into a recession in the first half of 2023. They estimated… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 27, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices have moved into the upper end of the trading range. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 0.6 mb, less than the 2.0 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged. In the details, U.S. crude oil production fell 0.1 mbpd to 12.2… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – China’s Collapsing Population (July 24, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In early 2020, we published a detailed, multi-part analysis of global demographic trends (see our Weekly Geopolitical Report from February 10, 2020). That report showed how falling birth rates and rising life expectancies have led to slower population growth, population aging, and weaker economic activity in countries ranging from China… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our three-year forecast still includes a relatively mild recession followed by a recovery and the potential for an economic expansion. We expect inflation to moderate in the near-term but modestly re-accelerate in the back half of the forecast period given underlying structural influences. The Fed’s monetary policy is… Read More »