Research & News
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Have Policymakers Solved the Tinbergen Problem? (March 27, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Central banking was initially created to address commercial bank runs. Commercial banks engage in a liquidity transformation, where they accept deposits, which are mostly available on demand, and turn that liquidity into less-liquid assets, usually loans or securities. Bank revenue comes from capturing this liquidity premium as less-liquid… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 24, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with an overview of our thoughts on the Congressional hearings for both TikTok and Treasury Security Janet Yellen. Next, we discuss why central banks have decided to raise interest rates in the face of an ongoing banking… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 23, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with our thoughts on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. Next, we discuss the Fed’s economic outlook and why it may not be representative of future policy. Lastly, the report examines China’s battle to avoid isolation by the… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (March 23, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil decisively broke its recent $72-$82 per barrel trading range. Problems in the banking sector are raising fears of a global economic slowdown. Classic technical analysis would suggest that the former support at $72 will become resistance; in other words, this level will… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 22, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the U.S. and European banking crises and what they mean for monetary policy going forward (we also note that the Federal Reserve will release its latest interest-rate decision this afternoon at 2:00 PM EDT). … Read More »
Daily Comment (March 21, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the U.S. banking crisis and how investors’ concerns appear to be dissipating, at least so far today. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Update on the U.S.-China Military Balance of Power (March 20, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In early 2021, we published a series of reports assessing the overall balance of power between the United States and China in military, economic, and diplomatic terms. Looking comprehensively at both countries’ power and sources of power, we judged that the U.S. retains the greater capacity to influence the world… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 20, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the global banking crisis, where Warren Buffett has reportedly been in contact with government officials in the U.S., and Swiss authorities have forced a merger of their top two banks. We next review a… Read More »