Research & News
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Are Higher Interest Rates Bearish for Risk Assets? (July 17, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Orthodox finance and economics rests on the idea that higher interest rates reduce economic activity and lower the attractiveness of risk assets. We have no real quarrel with the part about reducing economic activity as higher borrowing costs will tend to slow investment and consumer durable spending. The… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 13, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Falling U.S. inflation is raising hopes that the Fed’s tightening cycle is coming to an end. That has lifted oil prices, triggering a breakout above the recent trading range. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories rose 5.9 mb, well above the 0.1 mb draw… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2023 Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook: The Polycrisis (July 10, 2023)
Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF As is our custom, we update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year as the first half comes to a close. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 6, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Despite OPEC+ promises to cut production, oil remains in a $67 to $74 per barrel trading range. Commercial crude oil inventories fell 1.5 mb, which was on forecast. The SPR fell 1.5 mb, putting the total draw at 3.0 mb. In the details, U.S.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Green Shoots of Re-Industrialization (July 3, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In a little-noticed report last month, total construction spending in April was up a modest 6.1% from one year earlier, but private nonresidential construction spending was up a whopping 30.2%. That marked the fourth straight month in which private, nonresidential construction, a proxy for commercial construction, was up… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (June 29, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices may be establishing a new trading range between $67 and $75 per barrel. Commercial crude oil inventories fell 9.6 mb when compared to the forecast draw of 1.3 mb. The SPR fell 1.4 mb, putting the total draw at 11.0 mb. In… Read More »