Research & News
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Where’s the Recession? A Recap (September 25, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Precise recession forecasting is really difficult. Most recessions occur during periods of tightening monetary policy; however, history shows that monetary policy works with “long and variable lags,” meaning that the impact of rising interest rates doesn’t lead to consistent timing of downturns. It’s a bit like wanting to… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (September 21, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices have continued their rise, with Brent trending toward $95 per barrel. Recent extensions of the production cuts by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) have boosted prices. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 2.1 mb compared to forecasts of a 1.7… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Goodbye Prigozhin (September 18, 2023)
Bill O’Grady | PDF On August 23, an executive jet carrying seven passengers and three crew members crashed near Moscow on a flight to St. Petersburg. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, a private Russian military company, was reportedly one of the passengers. Prigozhin was having an eventful summer. He had led an… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (September 14, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices have continued their rise, with WTI trending towards $90 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories rose 4.0 mb, compared to forecasts of a 2.0 mb draw. The SPR rose 0.3 mb which puts the net build at 4.2 mb (the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Fiscal Tightening Looms (September 11, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF To understand the state of the U.S. economy and gauge near-term financial prospects, investors over the last couple of years have focused on issues like the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, consumer price inflation, labor market indicators, and retail sales. They seemed to pay much less attention to fiscal… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (September 8, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices have clearly broken out of their trading range, with Brent crude oil moving above $90 per barrel. Prices are being supported by the Russian and Saudi extension of production restraint. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 6.3 mb, much lower than… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 31, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices were mostly rangebound this week, holding near recent highs. We are watching Hurricane Idalia as it travels through the Gulf of Mexico. Its current track suggests it will miss the most sensitive areas of oil and gas production, but it could disrupt… Read More »