Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Chip War: Book Review (February 21, 2023)
Thomas Wash | PDF It was simple in the beginning. American firms developed all the designs for semiconductor chips, and Asian manufacturers turned them into reality. It was a match made in capitalist heaven. This all changed after the pandemic exposed supply chain vulnerabilities in the business model, and the situation only worsened after Russia’s… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 21, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with more evidence that the European economy is growing much better than expected. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including new tensions between… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 17, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with our thoughts about the mixed signals coming from central bank policymakers concerning future rate decisions. Next, we explain how the transition away from COVID policies and restrictions will affect the West and China differently. Finally, we… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 16, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with a discussion about the possibility of a soft landing for the economy. Next, we review how the battle for semiconductors is causing friction within the U.S.-led bloc. Lastly, we give our thoughts on the recent rally… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (February 16, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices appear to have based but so far have failed to break above resistance at around $80-$82 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose a whopping 16.3 mb compared to a 2.0 mb build forecast. The SPR was unchanged. In the… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 15, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a new forecast indicating that global oil demand is expected to rebound to a record high in 2023. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 14, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with two key developments in European Union economic policy, including a suggestion that the European Central Bank will tighten monetary policy more than expected and the passage of a new law that will ban the sale of gasoline-powered… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 13, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a number of observations regarding China’s relations with the rest of the world, driven by the wave of Chinese surveillance balloons belatedly discovered in North American airspace (although we don’t delve into why the North American Defense… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Reflections on Inflation (February 13, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF [Note: There will be no accompanying podcast with this report.] Several advisors and their clients have been asking questions about inflation, which suggests there is a degree of uncertainty surrounding the issue. This uncertainty is understandable as inflation is a very complicated subject and, unfortunately, economic theory has… Read More »