Research & News
Weekly Energy Update (April 27, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF After gapping two weeks ago, oil prices have filled the gap on worries about the global economy. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 5.1 mb compared to the forecast draw of 1.5 mb. The SPR fell 1.0 mb, putting the total draw at… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our forecast includes a normal recession, likely beginning later this year. We also expect a recovery during our three-year forecast period. The path of the Fed’s monetary policy will have an outsized effect on markets. Though market expectations are varied, we expect a measured path for fed funds.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Fed’s Employment Surprise (April 24, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF This is the tightest labor market for Black Americans in U.S. history. The Black unemployment rate fell to an all-time low in March unsurpassed since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began a separate calculation for Black workers in 1972. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate for Black Americans… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 20, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF After gapping last week, prices are consolidating. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 4.6 mb compared to the forecast draw of 0.9 mb. The SPR fell 1.6 mb, putting the total draw at 6.2 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production was… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (April 2023)
Letter to Investors | PDF Here we are, three and a half months into 2023: the Fed is still raising interest rates; a recession is widely expected to take hold this year; we have a banking crisis; the war between Russia and Ukraine continues to rage after more than a year; and the U.S. and… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – U.S. Intelligence Sharing as a Tool of International Relations (April 17, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Why should investors care about international relations? Why should they pay attention as great powers jostle for influence and dominance across the globe? One simple answer is that the global economy tends to grow better when there is one dominant country or “hegemon” that provides security, order, effective instruments for… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 13, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil gapped higher in early April on reports that OPEC+ was cutting production targets. It has held those gains and is now moving above chart resistance at $82 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories rose 0.6 mb compared to the forecast… Read More »