Research & News
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Increasing Concerns About Commercial Real Estate (April 10, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Last month’s failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB, $106.04) showed that the institution had vulnerabilities in both its assets and its liabilities. On the asset side of its balance sheet, the bank had too much exposure to longer-maturity government bonds, which depreciated sharply as the Federal Reserve aggressively… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 6, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil jumped on the unexpected decision by OPEC+ to cut production targets. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 3.7 mb compared to the forecast of a 1.8 mb build. The SPR fell 0.4 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production was unchanged… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Windsor Framework (April 3, 2023)
Thomas Wash | PDF On February 27, the United Kingdom and the European Union announced an important agreement to resolve disputes over the Irish border. The arrangement, referred to as the Windsor Framework, has been hailed by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as a step toward restoring trust between the EU and U.K. However, despite… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (March 30, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil decisively broke its recent $72-$82 per barrel trading range. Recent weakness was exacerbated by funds that sold out of long crude oil positions. Prices have recovered to the lower end of the previous trading range. We will see if this acts as… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Have Policymakers Solved the Tinbergen Problem? (March 27, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Central banking was initially created to address commercial bank runs. Commercial banks engage in a liquidity transformation, where they accept deposits, which are mostly available on demand, and turn that liquidity into less-liquid assets, usually loans or securities. Bank revenue comes from capturing this liquidity premium as less-liquid… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (March 23, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil decisively broke its recent $72-$82 per barrel trading range. Problems in the banking sector are raising fears of a global economic slowdown. Classic technical analysis would suggest that the former support at $72 will become resistance; in other words, this level will… Read More »