Research & News
Weekly Energy Update (August 17, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices did break out of the trading range but were unable to maintain the uptrend. We suspect the recent pullback is corrective in nature and not the start of a major selloff. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 6.0 mb, much lower… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Where’s the Recession? Examining Employment (August 14, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In August of last year, our yield-curve indicator signaled an inversion, which implies that a recession is set to occur within 16 months, on average. And so, we are still within range of a recession occurring by year’s end. However, the economic data continues to show improvement, raising… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 10, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices are challenging the upper end of the trading range but so far have failed to breakout above that level. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories rose 6.8 mb, well above the 3.0 mb build forecast. The SPR rose 1.0 mb. In the… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Economics of National Defense in Great Power Competition (August 7, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Tensions between the United States and China continue to worsen, with the two nations hurtling toward each other in a geopolitical game of chicken that, in a worst case scenario, could potentially end up in war. In the distance, a few possible off-ramps still hold promise, but the two powers… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 3, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices challenged the upper end of the trading range but so far have failed to breakout above that level. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell a massive 17.0 mb, well above the 2.3 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged. In the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Part-Time Troubles (July 31, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The job market has greatly surpassed the expectations of leading experts so far this year. Back in December, a Bloomberg survey found that economists predicted that monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve would push the country into a recession in the first half of 2023. They estimated… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 27, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices have moved into the upper end of the trading range. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 0.6 mb, less than the 2.0 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged. In the details, U.S. crude oil production fell 0.1 mbpd to 12.2… Read More »