Research & News
Weekly Energy Update (January 26, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices appear to have based but so far have failed to break above resistance at around $80-$82 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 0.5 mb compared to a 3.0 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged. In the details, U.S.… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 25, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an apparent agreement between the U.S. and Germany that will unlock the transfer of advanced tanks to Ukraine. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 24, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with some positive economic news out of Europe where the January flash composite PMI unexpectedly swung above the level of 50, indicating a return to growth. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The New German Problem (January 23, 2023)
Thomas Wash | PDF When times are tough, you discover who your real friends are, just ask the European Union. From 1860 to 1945, Germany struggled to keep the peace with its neighbors. Commodity-deprived and lacking natural barriers, Germany has sought to impose its will throughout Europe to protect itself from being invaded or cut… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 23, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with multiple reports out of Asia. Even though China is largely shut down this week because of the Lunar New Year holiday, several news items today reflect how its growing military strength and aggressiveness are having an impact… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 20, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with a discussion about how investors’ expectations of the Fed’s rate hikes are impacted by a possible recession. Next, we give our thoughts about U.S. foreign and domestic policy. Finally, we review the latest developments from China.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our three-year forecast contains a dynamic economic environment comprising both a normal recession and ensuing recovery. Upon signs of economic fragility, we expect the Fed to suspend its current assertive drive to quell inflation, with the likelihood that policymakers will cease their balance sheet reduction but will not… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (January 20, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices are trying to base but so far have failed to break above resistance at around $80 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 8.4 mb compared to a 2.0 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged, the first time since… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (January 2023)
Letter to Investors | PDF A new year is underway, and we wish you and yours all the best in 2023! The stock market certainly seems to be optimistic about the new year: the S&P 500 is up 4.1% through its first full two weeks of 2023 and it’s up 14.5% from the 52-week low… Read More »