Research & News
Weekly Energy Update (January 20, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices are trying to base but so far have failed to break above resistance at around $80 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 8.4 mb compared to a 2.0 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged, the first time since… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (January 2023)
Letter to Investors | PDF A new year is underway, and we wish you and yours all the best in 2023! The stock market certainly seems to be optimistic about the new year: the S&P 500 is up 4.1% through its first full two weeks of 2023 and it’s up 14.5% from the 52-week low… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Master of Surprise (January 17, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF [Note: The podcast that accompanies this report will be delayed until Friday, January 20.] They don’t call Haruhiko Kuroda the “Master of Surprise” for nothing. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor lifted the yield cap on 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGB) by 25 bps last month. The bank… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (January 12, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices continue to come under pressure on worries over economic growth, although there is some evidence that prices may be basing between $72 and $82 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories jumped 19.0 mb compared to a 3.0 mb draw forecast. … Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – How China Will Manage Its Evolving Geopolitical Bloc (January 9, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In mid-2022, we published a report showing that as the United States begins to step back from its traditional role as the global hegemon, the world is fracturing into relatively separate geopolitical and economic blocs. Our study looked at almost 200 countries around the world and aimed to objectively predict… Read More »
2023 Outlook: A Recession Year (December 21, 2022)
by Mark Keller, CFA, Bill O’Grady, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Summary of Expectations: A recession is highly probable in 2023. Our base case is a garden-variety recession. Three factors could trigger a deep recession: a. Falling nominal home prices; b. A financial crisis; c. A geopolitical event One factor that could mitigate the downturn… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (December 15, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (This will be the last report of 2022; we will resume publication on January 12, 2023.) Crude oil prices continue to come under pressure on worries over economic growth. There was likely some bullish positioning in front of the Russian price cap which is… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2023 Geopolitical Outlook (December 12, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady & Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (This is the last BWGR of 2022; the next report will be published on January 9, 2023.) As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of… Read More »