Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – How China Will Manage Its Evolving Geopolitical Bloc (January 9, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In mid-2022, we published a report showing that as the United States begins to step back from its traditional role as the global hegemon, the world is fracturing into relatively separate geopolitical and economic blocs. Our study looked at almost 200 countries around the world and aimed to objectively predict… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 9, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the post-pandemic landscape in China, where the relaxation of pandemic lockdowns continues to reverberate throughout the domestic, regional, and global economies. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 6, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with a discussion about Fed officials’ speeches and the U.S. jobs numbers. Up next, we review how rising inflation in the developed world impacts investing in emerging markets. We end the report by focusing on Russia and… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 5, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with our thoughts about global central banking. Next, we discuss why political uncertainty in the U.K. and the U.S. may impact investment decisions within these countries. Lastly, we review the challenges companies may face when navigating in… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 4, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with some positive news from Europe, where year-over-year price inflation looks like it may be moderating. The news has raised hopes of lower inflation and interest rates even beyond Europe, giving a boost to the stock and bond… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 3, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on all the key global developments over the holiday period, including the latest on China’s new COVID-19 wave and how it’s affecting international relations. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S.… Read More »
2023 Outlook: A Recession Year (December 21, 2022)
by Mark Keller, CFA, Bill O’Grady, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Summary of Expectations: A recession is highly probable in 2023. Our base case is a garden-variety recession. Three factors could trigger a deep recession: a. Falling nominal home prices; b. A financial crisis; c. A geopolitical event One factor that could mitigate the downturn… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 20, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Note to readers: the Daily Comment will go on holiday after today’s Comment and will return on January 3, 2022. From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! Our Comment today opens with… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 19, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a review of Japan’s new defense strategy, which was released at the end of last week, and illustrates how Japan intends to become a much more powerful military force and a more potent ally as the U.S.-China… Read More »