Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2023 Geopolitical Outlook (December 12, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady & Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (This is the last BWGR of 2022; the next report will be published on January 9, 2023.) As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (December 8, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices continue to come under pressure on worries over economic growth. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 5.2 mb compared to a 3.9 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 2.1 mb, meaning the net draw was 7.3 mb. In the details, U.S.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Forecasting Financial Stress (December 5, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF [Note: The podcast that accompanies this report will be delayed until 12/12. Also, this report will go on holiday hiatus following today’s report; the next report will be published on January 16, 2023.] One of the challenges of market strategy is the problem of financial stress. In colloquial… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (December 1, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices have been falling on fears of weaker Chinese demand due to COVID issues. We note that the futures market structure has moved into contango, where the deferred contracts trade at a premium to the spot. This is a bearish market structure.… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (November 17, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (The Weekly Energy Update will not be published next week due to Thanksgiving. The report will return on December 1.) Crude oil prices appear to be building in a base in the mid-$80s. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 5.4 mb compared to a… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Impossible Trinity (November 14, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The U.S. Dollar Index hit a 20-year high in September as the greenback gained against other global currencies. The climb in the U.S. dollar (USD) began in the post-pandemic recovery. Investors flocked to the greenback for safety as the U.S. economy outgrew its peers in the OECD. Aggressive… Read More »