Research & News
Daily Comment (August 1, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, including details on the first shipment of grain from a Ukrainian port under the recent Turkish-brokered deal for safe passage of food exports from the country. We next review a wide… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 29, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment will begin with a discussion of a broad macroeconomic outlook focusing on the central bank transition away from forward guidance, the U.S. GDP contraction in Q2, and a surge in Eurozone inflation. Next, we discuss U.S.-China relations. Finally,… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 28, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning. We have a lot to discuss today. Today’s Comment will begin with an overview of the latest Fed meeting. Next, we will analyze the latest development in the Russia-Ukraine war and explain why we think the conflict could end in… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 28, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF It appears that oil prices are settling into a broad trading range between $125 and $95 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 4.5 mb compared to a 1.5 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 5.6 mb, meaning the net draw was 10.1… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 27, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, including more fallout for the world’s energy and food supplies. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today,… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 26, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, with a focus on its associated disruptions to global natural gas and grain supplies. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 25, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, where all signs point to Ukraine launching a significant counteroffensive in its southern region around the occupied city of Kherson. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Puzzle of the Labor Force (July 25, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In the June 27 report, we discussed the idea that the FOMC may focus on reducing job openings rather than raising the unemployment rate as a way to ease labor-market tightness. The consensus from the establishment survey portion of the June payroll report, which questions employers, was that… Read More »