Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Ukraine War at Six Months: Some Reflections (September 12, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF On February 24, Russian forces entered Ukraine. Despite warnings from U.S. intelligence about an invasion, the general consensus was that Moscow was merely threatening to act. Thus, when Russia invaded, Europe was mostly caught by surprise. Much of what followed was also unexpected. As we reach the six-month mark of… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Storm Warning (September 6, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Throughout this year, there has been much talk (and confusion) about recession. Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research is the formal arbiter of recession. This private group of economists assesses when there is a broad-based decline in economic activity and when that activity recovers. It then tells… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (September 1, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (The Weekly Energy Update will not be published next week. The report will return on September 15.) Crude oil prices remain under pressure on fears of a deal with Iran and weakening economic growth. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 3.3 mb compared to… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Agricultural Commodities in the Evolving Geopolitical Blocs (August 29, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF As regular readers of this report will know, Confluence has long predicted that as the United States steps back from its traditional role as global hegemon, the world will become much less globalized and countries will coalesce into at least two rival geopolitical and economic blocs—one led by the… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 25, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices remain under pressure on fears of a deal with Iran and weakening economic growth. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 3.3 mb compared to a 2.5 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 8.1 mb, meaning the net draw was 11.4 mb.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Inflation Surprise (August 22, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF July inflation came in below expectations. On a yearly basis, the market expected an overall rate of 8.7%, while the actual reading was 8.5%. For core CPI, the actual was 5.9% compared to expectations of 6.1%. Perhaps the most bullish part of the report was the monthly change,… Read More »