Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Updates on Russia-Ukraine and Armenia-Azerbaijan (September 26, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Bill O’Grady | PDF September has been full of dramatic developments in Russia’s war against Ukraine and in the broader geopolitics of the region. Indeed, now that we’re into autumn and Russia and Ukraine are both trying to improve their positions ahead of winter, it may be a good time… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (September 22, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices remain under pressure on recession fears. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 1.1 mb compared to a 1.9 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 6.9 mb, meaning the net draw was 5.8 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production was… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Federal Reserve’s Big Policy Mistake (September 19, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF If you look at how stocks and other risk assets have lost value since Fed Chair Powell’s short, hawkish speech at Jackson Hole last month, it’s clear he has succeeded in resetting expectations for monetary policy. Investors now seem to accept that the Fed plans to hike interest… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (September 15, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices remain under pressure on recession fears. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 2.4 mb compared to a 2.5 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 8.4 mb, meaning the net draw was 6.0 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production was… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Ukraine War at Six Months: Some Reflections (September 12, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF On February 24, Russian forces entered Ukraine. Despite warnings from U.S. intelligence about an invasion, the general consensus was that Moscow was merely threatening to act. Thus, when Russia invaded, Europe was mostly caught by surprise. Much of what followed was also unexpected. As we reach the six-month mark of… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Storm Warning (September 6, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Throughout this year, there has been much talk (and confusion) about recession. Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research is the formal arbiter of recession. This private group of economists assesses when there is a broad-based decline in economic activity and when that activity recovers. It then tells… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (September 1, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (The Weekly Energy Update will not be published next week. The report will return on September 15.) Crude oil prices remain under pressure on fears of a deal with Iran and weakening economic growth. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 3.3 mb compared to… Read More »