Research & News
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In its battle against inflation, the Fed’s unrelenting tightening through the balance of this year and into next will be a major contributor to dampening demand. A worldwide economic contraction, inclusive of the U.S., is built into our three-year forecast. Our expectations are for a garden-variety recession in… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (October 2022)
Letter to Investors | PDF Summer has concluded and we’re starting to feel the chill of winter. For reasons that I’ve never fully understood, the stock market “feels a chill” this time of year also. More often than not, September produces a negative return for U.S. stocks, and this September was no exception. For some… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – An Update on Bonds (October 17, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our starting point for examining bond yields begins with our yield model. The key components are fed funds, the 15-year average of CPI (which is a proxy for inflation expectations), the five-year rolling standard deviation of CPI (a measure of inflation volatility), German Bund yields, oil prices, the… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 14, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices remain in a downtrend. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 9.9 mb compared to a 1.0 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 7.7 mb, meaning the net build was 2.2 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production fell 0.1 mbpd… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Europe’s New, Right-Wing Leaders (October 10, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Late summer can often be a quiet time for global affairs, economics, and the financial markets. Especially in Europe, people are off on their long summer holidays, making it difficult to find a “quorum” for political events and business meetings while sapping liquidity in the investment markets. This year,… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 6, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices remain in a downtrend. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 1.4 mb compared to a 2.1 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 6.2 mb, meaning the net draw was 7.6 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production was steady at… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Gold Paradox (October 3, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Gold prices have been weak in recent months despite high levels of inflation. Gold is often considered an inflation hedge, and so the lack of strength is puzzling to many investors. In this report, we will take a look at gold and try to explain why prices have… Read More »