Research & News
Weekly Energy Update (October 20, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices remain in a downtrend as concerns about global growth, especially with China, are weighing on prices. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 1.7 mb compared to a 2.0 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 3.6 mb, meaning the net draw was… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In its battle against inflation, the Fed’s unrelenting tightening through the balance of this year and into next will be a major contributor to dampening demand. A worldwide economic contraction, inclusive of the U.S., is built into our three-year forecast. Our expectations are for a garden-variety recession in… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (October 2022)
Letter to Investors | PDF Summer has concluded and we’re starting to feel the chill of winter. For reasons that I’ve never fully understood, the stock market “feels a chill” this time of year also. More often than not, September produces a negative return for U.S. stocks, and this September was no exception. For some… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – An Update on Bonds (October 17, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our starting point for examining bond yields begins with our yield model. The key components are fed funds, the 15-year average of CPI (which is a proxy for inflation expectations), the five-year rolling standard deviation of CPI (a measure of inflation volatility), German Bund yields, oil prices, the… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 14, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices remain in a downtrend. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 9.9 mb compared to a 1.0 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 7.7 mb, meaning the net build was 2.2 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production fell 0.1 mbpd… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Europe’s New, Right-Wing Leaders (October 10, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Late summer can often be a quiet time for global affairs, economics, and the financial markets. Especially in Europe, people are off on their long summer holidays, making it difficult to find a “quorum” for political events and business meetings while sapping liquidity in the investment markets. This year,… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 6, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices remain in a downtrend. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 1.4 mb compared to a 2.1 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 6.2 mb, meaning the net draw was 7.6 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production was steady at… Read More »