Research & News
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Inflation Surprise (August 22, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF July inflation came in below expectations. On a yearly basis, the market expected an overall rate of 8.7%, while the actual reading was 8.5%. For core CPI, the actual was 5.9% compared to expectations of 6.1%. Perhaps the most bullish part of the report was the monthly change,… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 18, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices remain under pressure on fears of a deal with Iran and weakening economic growth. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 7.1 mb compared to a 0.3 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 3.4 mb, meaning the net draw was 10.2 mb.… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The End of the World is Just the Beginning: A Book Review (August 15, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Soon after founding Confluence Investment Management, we formulated a position that the U.S. was in the early stages of ending its hegemonic role. We postulated that this event would have a profound effect on the domestic and global economy, and, consequently, financial markets. In traveling around the country discussing this… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 11, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Prices have broken support but appear to be basing around $88 per barrel. Crude oil inventories rose 5.5 mb compared to a 1.0 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 5.3 mb, meaning the net build was 0.2 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Devil Is in the Details (August 8, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF U.S. policymakers used deregulation and globalization to corral inflation from 1966 to 1982. Unfortunately, that policy was at odds with America’s superpower role, which required the U.S. to act as global importer of last resort. If the U.S. didn’t consume all the goods the world wanted to sell… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 4, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Prices are testing long-term support near $90 per barrel for crude oil. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 4.5 mb compared to a 1.5 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 4.7 mb, meaning the net draw was 0.2 mb. In the details, U.S. crude… Read More »