Research & News
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Puzzle of the Labor Force (July 25, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In the June 27 report, we discussed the idea that the FOMC may focus on reducing job openings rather than raising the unemployment rate as a way to ease labor-market tightness. The consensus from the establishment survey portion of the June payroll report, which questions employers, was that… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 21, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF It appears that oil prices are settling into a broad trading range between $125 and $95 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 0.5 mb compared to a 1.0 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 5.0 mb, meaning the net draw was 5.5… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (July 2022)
Letter to Investors | PDF The stock and bond markets continue to act as if a recession is imminent. “Why might a recession come upon us?” you might ask. “Isn’t the unemployment rate very low?” Yes, it is. While rising inflation has caused folks to defer purchases, the economy is still doing rather well. The… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Global growth is clearly slowing and the probability of a recession in the U.S. over the next year is significantly elevated. The Fed is continuing its aggressive attack on inflation through rapid increases in the fed funds rate and accelerating its balance sheet reduction. Economic data from overseas… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Pandemic’s Impact on Inequality (July 18, 2022)
by Natalia Fields | PDF During the global coronavirus pandemic that exploded globally in 2020, perhaps the most notable economic development was the effort by governments around the world to stop the spread of infections through lockdowns, while simultaneously trying to support incomes and economic activity via loose fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies. Importantly, the… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 14, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Since early June, oil prices have fallen significantly, breaking the psychologically important point of $100 per barrel. Technical support exists at $95 per barrel, so we will be watching to see if it holds. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 3.3 mb compared to… Read More »
2022 Outlook: Update #2 – The Tails Become Fatter (July 12, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Mark Keller, CFA | PDF In our 2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails, we outlined a forecast with a higher likelihood of events outside the norm. To compensate for the unusual level of uncertainty, we promised to provide frequent updates to the forecast. This report is the… Read More »