Research & News
Daily Comment (January 30, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with confirmation that the U.S. has secured the cooperation of Japan and the Netherlands in clamping down on key semiconductor technology transfers to China. The move is designed to suppress China’s military technology development, but it will also… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Secular Trends In Bond Yields (January 30, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF [Note: The podcast that accompanies this report will be posted later this week.] Secular trends in markets are trends that have an extended life. Their length can be different across various markets, but they are usually measured in years and sometimes decades. It is not uncommon for shorter-term… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 27, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with our thoughts on the latest Gross Domestic Product data and what it may say about the economy. Next, we explain why the global bond rally has not eased concerns over government debt management. The report ends… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 26, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with a discussion about whether central banks will continue to raise rates. Next, we explain why investors have varying opinions about the state of the global economy. We end the report with our thoughts about rising friction… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (January 26, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices appear to have based but so far have failed to break above resistance at around $80-$82 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 0.5 mb compared to a 3.0 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged. In the details, U.S.… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 25, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an apparent agreement between the U.S. and Germany that will unlock the transfer of advanced tanks to Ukraine. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 24, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with some positive economic news out of Europe where the January flash composite PMI unexpectedly swung above the level of 50, indicating a return to growth. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The New German Problem (January 23, 2023)
Thomas Wash | PDF When times are tough, you discover who your real friends are, just ask the European Union. From 1860 to 1945, Germany struggled to keep the peace with its neighbors. Commodity-deprived and lacking natural barriers, Germany has sought to impose its will throughout Europe to protect itself from being invaded or cut… Read More »