Research & News
Daily Comment (October 20, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with our explanation as to why unorthodox policies can lead to currency weakness. Next, we discuss how the possibility of a withdrawal of Western support could help end the war in Ukraine. We end the report with… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 20, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices remain in a downtrend as concerns about global growth, especially with China, are weighing on prices. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 1.7 mb compared to a 2.0 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 3.6 mb, meaning the net draw was… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 19, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, including reports that Iranian military personnel have been deployed to Russian-occupied Crimea to help Russian forces operate their Iranian-supplied drones. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In its battle against inflation, the Fed’s unrelenting tightening through the balance of this year and into next will be a major contributor to dampening demand. A worldwide economic contraction, inclusive of the U.S., is built into our three-year forecast. Our expectations are for a garden-variety recession in… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (October 2022)
Letter to Investors | PDF Summer has concluded and we’re starting to feel the chill of winter. For reasons that I’ve never fully understood, the stock market “feels a chill” this time of year also. More often than not, September produces a negative return for U.S. stocks, and this September was no exception. For some… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 18, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, including details on the shooting of newly mobilized troops at a training camp in Russia and signs that Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin may be positioning himself to eventually push President Putin… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 17, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, including news of further progress with Ukraine’s counteroffensive to retake the Russian-held city of Kherson in the country’s south. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – An Update on Bonds (October 17, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our starting point for examining bond yields begins with our yield model. The key components are fed funds, the 15-year average of CPI (which is a proxy for inflation expectations), the five-year rolling standard deviation of CPI (a measure of inflation volatility), German Bund yields, oil prices, the… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 14, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning. Today’s Comment begins with our thoughts on yesterday’s CPI report. Next, we discuss significant policy shifts in some of the most influential countries. Finally, we discuss how Russia’s nuclear threat has encouraged other countries to become more pugnacious. The Market… Read More »