Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Going Nuclear with North Korea (May 23, 2022)
by Thomas Wash | PDF At nearly 5,000 nuclear warheads, Ukraine had one of the largest nuclear arsenals in the world on its territory. If Ukraine hadn’t transferred those weapons to Russia in 1996, it is unlikely that Moscow would have invaded. North Korea believes it is facing a similar threat which is why it… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (May 19, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices have moved higher this week, touching technical resistance at $115 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell 3.4 mb compared to a 1.6 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 5.0 mb, meaning the net draw was 8.4 mb. In… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The FOMC Speaks (May 16, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF On May 4th, the FOMC announced its policy changes. The Fed moved its fed funds target by 50 bps, the fastest increase in 22 years; the last hike of this amount was in May 2000. In the press conference, Chair Powell scotched the notion of a greater than… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (May 12, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices have been volatile over the past few days. A number of factors have been at play. However, the chart suggests a price range is developing between $100 to $110 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose 8.5 mb compared to… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Parsing the World’s New Geopolitical Blocs (May 9, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF For more than a decade, we at Confluence have been tracking and writing about the waning commitment of the U.S. to its role as global hegemon. We’ve shown how U.S. retrenchment and protectionism have helped erode globalization. Factors like deregulation, falling transportation costs, improved technology, and easing geopolitical tensions… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (May 5, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF It appears oil prices are attempting to create a trading range between $105 to $95 per barrel. That may hold until the SPR release is complete. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose 1.3 mb compared to a 0.2 mb draw forecast. The SPR… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Tale of Two Surveys (May 2, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The Conference Board Survey of Consumer Confidence and the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment are two closely followed reports about the American consumer. Domestic consumption makes up about two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so insights into consumer attitudes may predict changes in the business cycle. The… Read More »