Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The New Era of Higher Defense Budgets (March 28, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF The Russia-Ukraine war has transformed the world in the blink of an eye. We think the war and its aftermath will reverse much of the economic globalization of recent decades and cleave the world into two or more blocs with only limited interplay. We believe sanctions on Russia will… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (March 24, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF After falling last week, oil prices have moved steadily higher on continued tensions in Ukraine. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 2.5 mb compared to a 0.5 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 4.2 mb, meaning the net draw was 6.7 mb. The withdrawal… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – A Commodity Update (March 21, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Since the beginning of the year, commodities, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, have been up 15.4%. All other major asset classes are down for the year. Among the S&P 500 sectors, only energy is positive. Commodity prices were strong going into the war in Ukraine, but… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (March 17, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices have fallen to near pre-invasion levels. The initial rally was driven by short covering, and price volatility has reduced market participation. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose 4.3 mb compared to a 1.6 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 2.0 mb,… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Ukraine War and the Path of Globalization (March 14, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen. ̶ Vladimir Lenin Over the coming weeks, we will be analyzing the impact of the war in Ukraine. Clearly, the situation is highly fluid[1] and projections on how the future will be affected by the war must… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (March 10, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices have spiked but are being hit by waves of profit-taking. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell 1.9 mb compared to a 1.5 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 2.5 mb, meaning the net draw was 4.4 mb. In the details, U.S.… Read More »