Research & News
Weekly Energy Update (April 28, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF It appears oil prices are attempting to create a trading range between $105 to $95 per barrel. That may hold until the SPR release is complete. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose 0.7 mb compared to a 0.3 mb draw forecast. The SPR… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Russians Respond (April 25, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF In mid-March, we wrote a report detailing the effects of financial sanctions on Russia. And now, about six weeks later, we are seeing the response from Russia. As we noted in our earlier report, Western sanctions on Russia were extensive. Although something similar was deployed against Iran, never before had… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (April 2022)
Letter to Investors | PDF Well, let’s count the things people are worrying about: we’re over two years into a global pandemic, commodity prices are spiking upward, consumer price inflation has risen dramatically, the Fed is raising interest rates, recession worries are spreading, and there’s a war in Europe. I am asked almost every day,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In its efforts to combat inflation, the U.S. Federal Reserve has adopted a much more hawkish monetary policy stance through a combination of raising the fed funds rate and reducing its balance sheet. Global central banks, in contrast, have varying policy responses ranging from extensively accommodative to increasingly… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 21, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices did break out of a descending triangle, which is bullish, but for the most part, we look for prices to be rangebound for the next six months during the SPR withdrawal. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell 8.0 mb compared to… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Bank of Japan Cocks the Trigger (April 18, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In Hollywood movies, the classic device to convey a menacing threat is to have the tough-guy cop pull back the hammer on his revolver and cock the trigger. It’s not enough that the cop just points his gun at the criminal. Once you hear that “click,” you know… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 14, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices appear to be settling into a trading range. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 9.4 mb compared to an unchanged forecast. The SPR declined 3.9 mb, meaning the net build was 5.5 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production is unchanged… Read More »