Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Agricultural Commodities in the Evolving Geopolitical Blocs (August 29, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF As regular readers of this report will know, Confluence has long predicted that as the United States steps back from its traditional role as global hegemon, the world will become much less globalized and countries will coalesce into at least two rival geopolitical and economic blocs—one led by the… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 29, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, where a key focus is now on the risks to a major nuclear energy plant in eastern Ukraine. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 26, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment examines why Thursday’s economic data could encourage the Fed to raise rates more aggressively. Next, we explain how elections in Russia could impact its war with Ukraine. We conclude the report by discussing the U.S.-China rivalry and how… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 25, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with an explanation as to why traders believe that central banks will become more hawkish over the next few months. Next, we review the ramifications of President Biden’s student loan forgiveness program. Lastly, we will give our… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 25, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices remain under pressure on fears of a deal with Iran and weakening economic growth. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 3.3 mb compared to a 2.5 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 8.1 mb, meaning the net draw was 11.4 mb.… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 24, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war. Today is Ukraine’s national Independence Day and marks six months since the start of the war. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 23, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, where military operations remain relatively quiet. We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including more evidence of… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 22, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, where very few new territorial gains are being made by either side, but the weekend assassination of a Russian nationalist influencer has sparked concern that Russia may now be forced to… Read More »