Research & News
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The U.S. Trade Deficit and Global Prices (February 22 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF When Democrats passed the CARES Act in January 2021, it was viewed initially as a political achievement. Polling from Politico/Morning Consult showed 75% of registered voters supported the bill three months after its passing. Meanwhile, Democrats began touting President Biden as the next Franklin D. Roosevelt. The legislation… Read More »
2022 Outlook: Update #1 (February 18, 2022)
by Mark Keller, CFA, Bill O’Grady, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In our 2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails, we outlined a forecast with a higher likelihood of events outside the norm. To compensate for the unusual level of uncertainty, we promised to provide frequent updates to the forecast. This report is the… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (February 17, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices briefly moved above $95 per barrel and are threatening the $100 per barrel level. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 1.1 mb compared to a 1.9 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 2.7 mb, meaning the net draw was 1.6 mb. In… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Ukraine: Key Questions (February 14, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Bill O’Grady | PDF Don’t miss the accompanying Geopolitical Podcast, now available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify | Google For the past two months, Russia has been mobilizing around Ukraine, leading to fears that Moscow is planning to invade. The U.S. has warned Russia against… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (February 10, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF After breaking above $90 per barrel late last week, prices have modestly retreated. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell 4.8 mb compared to a 1.4 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 1.4 mb, meaning the net draw was 6.2 mb. In the details,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Gold: An Update of Current Conditions (February 7, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Gold moved steadily higher from the late summer of 2018 into August 2020. Prices then declined toward $1,700 and have since traced out a trading range between $1,700 and $1,900. In this report, we will update our views on the metal. (Source: Barchart.com) We have been holding gold… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (February 3, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Since troughing in early December, oil prices have been steadily rising due to tightening supplies. We are approaching the highs set in November. Crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell 1.0 mb compared to a 1.8 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 1.9 mb, meaning the… Read More »