Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Turkish Experiment (February 28, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Don’t miss the accompanying Geopolitical Podcast, now available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify | Google The Turkish economy is being roiled by spiking inflation and a sharp decline in the Turkish lira (TRY). The orthodox response to such a macroeconomic crisis is austerity. Fiscal and… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (February 25, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices briefly moved above $100 per barrel on news of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose 4.5 mb compared to a 1.0 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 2.4 mb, meaning the net build was 2.1 mb.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The U.S. Trade Deficit and Global Prices (February 22 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF When Democrats passed the CARES Act in January 2021, it was viewed initially as a political achievement. Polling from Politico/Morning Consult showed 75% of registered voters supported the bill three months after its passing. Meanwhile, Democrats began touting President Biden as the next Franklin D. Roosevelt. The legislation… Read More »
2022 Outlook: Update #1 (February 18, 2022)
by Mark Keller, CFA, Bill O’Grady, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In our 2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails, we outlined a forecast with a higher likelihood of events outside the norm. To compensate for the unusual level of uncertainty, we promised to provide frequent updates to the forecast. This report is the… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (February 17, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices briefly moved above $95 per barrel and are threatening the $100 per barrel level. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 1.1 mb compared to a 1.9 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 2.7 mb, meaning the net draw was 1.6 mb. In… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Ukraine: Key Questions (February 14, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Bill O’Grady | PDF Don’t miss the accompanying Geopolitical Podcast, now available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify | Google For the past two months, Russia has been mobilizing around Ukraine, leading to fears that Moscow is planning to invade. The U.S. has warned Russia against… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (February 10, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF After breaking above $90 per barrel late last week, prices have modestly retreated. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell 4.8 mb compared to a 1.4 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 1.4 mb, meaning the net draw was 6.2 mb. In the details,… Read More »