Research & News
Weekly Energy Update (February 3, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Since troughing in early December, oil prices have been steadily rising due to tightening supplies. We are approaching the highs set in November. Crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell 1.0 mb compared to a 1.8 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 1.9 mb, meaning the… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Two Power Plays in Kazakhstan (January 31, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Bill O’Grady | PDF Don’t miss the accompanying Geopolitical Podcast, now available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify | Google Over the past month, unrest has developed in Kazakhstan. The unrest began as protests against rising fuel prices, but it soon blossomed into broader, more widespread,… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (January 27, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Since troughing in early December, oil prices have been steadily rising due to tightening supplies. We are approaching the highs set in November. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose 2.4 mb compared to a 1.0 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 1.3 mb,… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (January 2022)
Letter to Investors | PDF As I write this letter, stock markets around the world have spent much of the last three weeks selling off sharply. After peaking on January 4, the S&P 500 has fallen over 12% from that high. This, after it returned over 28% last year (including dividends). In fact, most indices… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Real Income versus the Wealth Effect; What is Driving Consumption? (January 24, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF One of the debates within economics is whether consumption is driven by income or wealth. The outcome of this debate is important for policymakers; if the goal of policy is lifting or constraining growth, knowing which factor is more important to consumption is critical. For example, if the… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (January 21, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Since troughing in early December, oil prices have been steadily rising due to tightening supplies. We are approaching the highs set in November. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose 0.5 mb compared to a 2.0 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 1.3 mb,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF We anticipate that economic growth will continue, but at a more modest pace than last year, and the potential for a recession within our three-year forecast period remains low. The Fed’s prior intransigence on inflation has yielded to a more hawkish stance leading to expectations for the curtailment… Read More »