Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Two Power Plays in Kazakhstan (January 31, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Bill O’Grady | PDF Don’t miss the accompanying Geopolitical Podcast, now available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify | Google Over the past month, unrest has developed in Kazakhstan. The unrest began as protests against rising fuel prices, but it soon blossomed into broader, more widespread,… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (January 27, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Since troughing in early December, oil prices have been steadily rising due to tightening supplies. We are approaching the highs set in November. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose 2.4 mb compared to a 1.0 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 1.3 mb,… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (January 2022)
Letter to Investors | PDF As I write this letter, stock markets around the world have spent much of the last three weeks selling off sharply. After peaking on January 4, the S&P 500 has fallen over 12% from that high. This, after it returned over 28% last year (including dividends). In fact, most indices… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Real Income versus the Wealth Effect; What is Driving Consumption? (January 24, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF One of the debates within economics is whether consumption is driven by income or wealth. The outcome of this debate is important for policymakers; if the goal of policy is lifting or constraining growth, knowing which factor is more important to consumption is critical. For example, if the… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (January 21, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Since troughing in early December, oil prices have been steadily rising due to tightening supplies. We are approaching the highs set in November. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose 0.5 mb compared to a 2.0 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 1.3 mb,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF We anticipate that economic growth will continue, but at a more modest pace than last year, and the potential for a recession within our three-year forecast period remains low. The Fed’s prior intransigence on inflation has yielded to a more hawkish stance leading to expectations for the curtailment… Read More »