Research & News
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – A Commodity Update (March 21, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Since the beginning of the year, commodities, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, have been up 15.4%. All other major asset classes are down for the year. Among the S&P 500 sectors, only energy is positive. Commodity prices were strong going into the war in Ukraine, but… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (March 17, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices have fallen to near pre-invasion levels. The initial rally was driven by short covering, and price volatility has reduced market participation. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose 4.3 mb compared to a 1.6 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 2.0 mb,… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Ukraine War and the Path of Globalization (March 14, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen. ̶ Vladimir Lenin Over the coming weeks, we will be analyzing the impact of the war in Ukraine. Clearly, the situation is highly fluid[1] and projections on how the future will be affected by the war must… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (March 10, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices have spiked but are being hit by waves of profit-taking. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell 1.9 mb compared to a 1.5 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 2.5 mb, meaning the net draw was 4.4 mb. In the details, U.S.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Believe It or Not, Fiscal Policy Is Tightening (March 7, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The U.S. economy and government economic policies have many moving parts, but investors often latch onto just one or two indicators or policy initiatives to gauge where asset prices are heading. These days, their focus has been on consumer price inflation and the Federal Reserve’s plan to hike… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (March 3, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices are moving sharply higher as sanctions expand against Russia. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell 2.6 mb compared to a 2.5 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 2.4 mb, meaning the net build was 5.0 mb. In the details, U.S. crude… Read More »