Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly – An Update on Gold (December 3, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Gold moved steadily higher from the late summer of 2018 into August 2020. Prices then declined toward 1,700 and have since traced out a trading range between 1,700 and 1,900. In this report, we will update our views on the metal. (Source: Barchart.com) We have been holding gold… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (December 2, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices fell sharply on SPR sales and due to the Omicron variant of COVID-19. Crude oil inventories fell 0.9 mb compared to a 1.4 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 1.9 mb, meaning the net draw was 2.9 mb (due to rounding). In… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (November 22, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF (NB: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the next report will be published on December 6.) During the 1970s, the world economy suffered through two oil shocks. The first, in 1973, was caused by the Yom Kippur War. The U.S. supported Israel, and the Arab states retaliated with an oil embargo. … Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly – The Composition of the FOMC (November 19, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF (NB: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the next report will be published on December 3.) The FOMC now has at least three vacant governor positions and two regional bank president positions. There is one vacancy that remains from the Trump administration. Richard Clarida’s vice-chair position expires in January. … Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (November 18, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (N.B. Due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday, the next report will be published on December 2.) Oil prices have been struggling this week, testing support $79.50. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell 2.1 mb compared to a 1.2 mb build forecast. The SPR… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Special Relationship (November 15, 2021)
by Thomas Wash | PDF Ever since the United Kingdom defeated the Spanish Armada in the 16th century, it has typically kept Europe at arm’s length. The victory not only showed that the British could successfully defend itself from invasion, but that it was an important power in Europe. This newfound confidence along with the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly – The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index and Bond Yields (November 12, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF As market strategists, we’re always on the lookout for reliable indicators of future financial market performance wherever we can find them. Some indicators are strongly correlated by themselves, with performance yardsticks like stock prices, dividend yields, or bond yields. Other indicators are indexes composed of multiple data points,… Read More »