Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly – The Composition of the FOMC (November 19, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF (NB: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the next report will be published on December 3.) The FOMC now has at least three vacant governor positions and two regional bank president positions. There is one vacancy that remains from the Trump administration. Richard Clarida’s vice-chair position expires in January. … Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (November 18, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (N.B. Due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday, the next report will be published on December 2.) Oil prices have been struggling this week, testing support $79.50. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell 2.1 mb compared to a 1.2 mb build forecast. The SPR… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Special Relationship (November 15, 2021)
by Thomas Wash | PDF Ever since the United Kingdom defeated the Spanish Armada in the 16th century, it has typically kept Europe at arm’s length. The victory not only showed that the British could successfully defend itself from invasion, but that it was an important power in Europe. This newfound confidence along with the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly – The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index and Bond Yields (November 12, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF As market strategists, we’re always on the lookout for reliable indicators of future financial market performance wherever we can find them. Some indicators are strongly correlated by themselves, with performance yardsticks like stock prices, dividend yields, or bond yields. Other indicators are indexes composed of multiple data points,… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (November 11, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF After pulling back from $85 per barrel, the market made another assault on the price level, but that level is proving to give strong resistance. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 1.0 mb compared to a 2.6 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 3.1… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Meet Fumio Kishida (November 8, 2021)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Whenever a big, rich country gets a new leader, there could be potential investment implications, and Japan is no exception to this rule. When former Prime Minister Suga announced last summer that he wouldn’t seek reelection as head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the first step in Japan’s… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly – Is Monetary Policy Affected by Financial Markets? (November 5, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In the 1980s, economic graduate students were taught that the “wealth effect” was minor at best. It is a behavioral theory that measures the impact of rising wealth on consumption. In theory, when a household’s assets increase in excess of its liabilities, there should be a tendency for… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (November 4, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF After touching $85 per barrel, oil prices have dropped on rising inventories and worries about tightening monetary policy. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 3.3 mb compared to a 2.0 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 1.6 mb, meaning the net draw was 1.7… Read More »