Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly – Don’t Call It a Comeback! (September 17, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Last week, the federal government’s enhanced unemployment benefits of up to $300 per week expired nationwide. It has been speculated that the end of these benefits could lead to a surge of new entrants into the labor market. However, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) suggests… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (September 16, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Prices moved above $70 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 6.4 mb compared to the 3.6 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 0.5 mb, meaning the net draw was 6.9 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production rose 0.1 mbpd to… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Afghanistan, Part I: History (September 13, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF The American exit from Afghanistan has created a crisis in the region. For two decades, the U.S. has propped up a government in Kabul. The U.S. withdrawal has led to the rapid collapse of that government and the restoration of the Taliban. The media has been closely tracking the situation… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly – Powell and Fed Independence (September 10, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Chair Powell’s term as leader of the FOMC comes to an end in early February 2022. It appears likely, at this time, that he will be reappointed for another four-year term. Decision markets currently put the odds of another term at 85%. Given all the policy actions that… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (September 10, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Prices continued to consolidate in the high $60s. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 1.5 mb compared to the 6.0 mb draw forecast. Analysts (including us) were clearly expecting Ida to bring a large draw. However, the drop in exports and the slide in… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly – Are Strong Profits Sustainable? (September 3, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF (Note: due to the upcoming Labor Day holiday, there will not be an accompanying podcast episode this week.) With the first update of Q2 GDP, the Commerce Department released its corporate profits for the economy. Using after-tax profits, which exclude inventory adjustment and depreciation, profits relative to GDP… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (September 2, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF After reaching $62 per barrel support, prices have snapped back and are consolidating around $68 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 7.2 mb compared to the 2.5 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged this week. In the details, U.S. crude oil… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Storm Before the Calm: A Review (August 30, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF (N.B. Due to the Labor Day holiday, the next report will be published on September 13.) Although we maintain an official reading list with capsule reviews, occasionally we come across a book that we think is important enough to review as a report. George Friedman’s newest book, The Storm Before… Read More »