Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly – Are Strong Profits Sustainable? (September 3, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF (Note: due to the upcoming Labor Day holiday, there will not be an accompanying podcast episode this week.) With the first update of Q2 GDP, the Commerce Department released its corporate profits for the economy. Using after-tax profits, which exclude inventory adjustment and depreciation, profits relative to GDP… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (September 2, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF After reaching $62 per barrel support, prices have snapped back and are consolidating around $68 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 7.2 mb compared to the 2.5 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged this week. In the details, U.S. crude oil… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Storm Before the Calm: A Review (August 30, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF (N.B. Due to the Labor Day holiday, the next report will be published on September 13.) Although we maintain an official reading list with capsule reviews, occasionally we come across a book that we think is important enough to review as a report. George Friedman’s newest book, The Storm Before… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly – This Recovery is Different (August 27, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Since the Federal Reserve was granted independence in 1951 there have been 11 recessions. Although each recession and recovery are somewhat unique, analysts tend to compare them for clues about future economic activity and policy actions. In terms of monetary policy, Chair Powell has staked out a dovish… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 26, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF After reaching $62 per barrel support, prices have snapped back. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 3.0 mb compared to the 2.0 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged this week. In the details, U.S. crude oil production was steady at 11.4 mbpd. Exports… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Data and Geopolitics: Part II (August 23, 2021)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In Part I of this report, we discussed why today’s political leaders and governments are now paying such close attention to the control of data and information, and what that means for geopolitics. In Part II, we will show how China is perhaps the best example of modern state… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly – The Impact of Older Americans on the Labor Market (August 20, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In analyzing the path for the economy, an important factor is separating the temporary effects of the pandemic from those that are longer lasting. The debate over whether inflation will be transitory is tied to this determination. The impact on the labor markets is another element. One change… Read More »