Research & News
Daily Comment (January 25, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Today’s Comment opens with a rather lengthy discussion of the Russia-Ukraine crisis and what it may mean for the geopolitical trends of the last several decades. We show that the crisis has the potential (though not the certainty) of rolling back some… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Real Income versus the Wealth Effect; What is Driving Consumption? (January 24, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF One of the debates within economics is whether consumption is driven by income or wealth. The outcome of this debate is important for policymakers; if the goal of policy is lifting or constraining growth, knowing which factor is more important to consumption is critical. For example, if the… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 24, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF In today’s Comment, we open with the building of geopolitical tensions along the Russia-Ukraine border and in the waters off the coast of China. We next review various political and economic developments around the world, including a brief comment regarding this week’s… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 21, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Today’s report begins with Treasury Secretary Yellen’s outlook on inflation. We then turn to a report from the Federal Reserve regarding digital currencies and comment on a few other U.S. economic and policy news items. Next, we discuss details about… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (January 21, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Since troughing in early December, oil prices have been steadily rising due to tightening supplies. We are approaching the highs set in November. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose 0.5 mb compared to a 2.0 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 1.3 mb,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF We anticipate that economic growth will continue, but at a more modest pace than last year, and the potential for a recession within our three-year forecast period remains low. The Fed’s prior intransigence on inflation has yielded to a more hawkish stance leading to expectations for the curtailment… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 20, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Treasury yields have moderated, and equity futures are higher. Today’s report begins with a few items from President Biden’s speech yesterday. Next, we discuss U.S. economic and policy news followed by China-related stories. International news follows, and we end with… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 19, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Today, our Comment begins with remarks regarding yesterday’s market volatility. We next provide an update on the tensions at the Russia-Ukraine border. We then cover a few U.S. and international news items that have the potential to affect the financial markets today,… Read More »