Tag: Mexico

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Return of AMLO (July 9, 2018)

Posted on by Rebekah Stovall

by Thomas Wash

On July 1, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, or AMLO for short, became Mexico’s first leftist president in over three decades,[1] running on anti-establishment and anti-corruption platforms. The 64-year-old activist won with over 53% of the vote, the most since Mexico moved to a multi-party system.  For the first time in nearly a century, Mexico elected a president who did not belong to either of the two traditional parties, PRI or PAN. Furthermore, his political party, the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), was also victorious, winning the majority in both the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. As a result, AMLO will be the most powerful Mexican president since the PAN party ended PRI’s 70-year rule in 2000.

AMLO, who had run for president twice before, overcame stiff opposition from establishment candidates in the PRI and PAN parties. Since winning the presidency, AMLO has promised to balance the government budget, lower the crime rate and negotiate with the Trump administration on immigration and trade. His victory has caused market uncertainty as many people are not sure how he will handle Mexico’s relationship with the United States. The U.S. and Mexico have been re-negotiating NAFTA since last August and are expected to resume negotiations again next year. In addition, the U.S. and Mexico are still trying to find a solution to the immigration problem. In this report, we will examine how and why AMLO was so successful, briefly describe his history and then discuss how he might run his government. As usual, we will conclude with possible market ramifications.

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[1] The last leftist Mexican president was Miguel de la Madrid, who presided from 1982 to 1988.

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Rise of AMLO: Part II (March 20, 2017)

Posted on by Rebekah Stovall

by Thomas Wash

In their next general election, Mexicans will cast their vote for the 64th president of the country’s history. The two frontrunners are Margarita Zavala from the National Action Party and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) from the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA). Although the election won’t be held until July 2018, current polls suggest that AMLO would win by a small margin if the election were held today. His recent surge can be partially attributed to growing nationalism in Mexico due to Donald Trump’s election as president of the United States.

AMLO’s core supporters can be broken into two groups, those who are against neo-liberal economic reforms and those who want more social benefits. He derives most of his support from the southern region of Mexico, primarily in the states of Tabasco and Chiapas, where there is a significant indigenous population. To get an idea of how his supporters view him, imagine a politician with Bernie Sanders’s righteousness and Donald Trump’s brashness. AMLO is known for participating in protests, and was once left bloody from an altercation with police. He also hurls insults at his political rivals in the PRI and PAN parties, labelling them as the “mafia elite.” Recently, he held a pep rally in California to criticize Donald Trump’s immigration policies and vowed to take his complaints to the United Nations. If AMLO wins the presidency, it could adversely affect the already tense relationship between the U.S. and Mexico.

This week’s report will be divided into three sections. First, we will offer a brief biography on AMLO. Next, we will analyze his possible policy agendas and discuss the likelihood that he wins the presidency, followed by possible market ramifications.

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